Market Overview: Uniswap (UNIUSD) 24-Hour Summary (2025-08-30)

• Uniswap’s price remained flat near $9.546 in the early hours before a late rally pushed it to $9.72.
• Momentum showed a late-day spike, with RSI and MACD suggesting a potential overbought condition at the 24-hour high.
• Volatility remained low for most of the session, with a sharp increase observed in the 23:00–09:30 ET window.
• The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart showed convergence, indicating short-term consolidation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 06:30 ET hour, aligning with the backtest strategy trigger.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, Uniswap (UNIUSD) displayed a range-bound structure early in the session, with price consolidating tightly near $9.546. A key breakout occurred at 06:30 ET following a bullish engulfing pattern, which confirmed a short-term reversal. The pattern formed after a period of low volume and minimal price movement, suggesting a buildup of buying pressure. The price then moved steadily upward to a high of $9.72 before encountering a minor countertrend pullback in the late afternoon. Key support and resistance levels for the 15-minute chart included $9.546 and $9.686, respectively, with the latter acting as a dynamic pivot during the pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs converged and supported the late-day bullish move. The 20-period line crossed above the 50-period line in a “golden cross” formation, reinforcing the bullish momentum observed in the latter half of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA at $9.56 and the 200-period SMA at $9.50 indicate a neutral stance, with no clear bias toward short-term or long-term direction. However, the 20-period line on the daily chart is starting to cross above the 50-period line, which may suggest a developing bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a clear bullish divergence during the 06:30–09:30 ET window, with the histogram expanding and the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This confirmed the strength of the bullish move. The RSI (14) peaked at 70 during the late morning, indicating an overbought condition, which aligns with the price reaching the high of the session. However, the RSI did not show signs of exhaustion, and the divergence between the RSI and price suggested continued strength in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands (20, 2) remained relatively narrow throughout the early session, indicating low volatility. A sudden expansion occurred at the time of the bullish engulfing pattern, with the price breaking above the upper band and closing near it. This suggests a potential reversal from a consolidation phase into a breakout phase. Price remained within the upper band for most of the next 4.5 hours, indicating that the move was supported by strong bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 06:30 ET (832.48 UNI) as the price broke out to form the bullish engulfing pattern. This was followed by a smaller spike at 09:30 ET (1.49 UNI), which coincided with the price reaching $9.72. The volume pattern confirmed the strength of the breakout and suggested that institutional or large participants were likely involved. Notional turnover increased proportionally with price, and no significant divergence between volume and price was observed, indicating a clean bullish move with strong participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high of $9.72 and the prior low of $9.445, the key levels for the 24-hour period were $9.63 (61.8%) and $9.59 (38.2%). The price tested and held above the $9.686 level in the late afternoon, suggesting that the 61.8% retracement could act as a near-term resistance target for the next 24 hours. The 38.2% level was briefly tested during the pullback but held firm, indicating that the bullish move remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy analyzed buying UNIUSD when a Bullish Engulfing pattern appears and holding the position for 24 hours. Over the period 2022-01-01 to 2025-08-30, a total of 40 such events were detected. However, the average 24-hour return was -0.06%, and the win-rate was 37.5%, suggesting limited profitability. The results were not statistically significant, indicating that the returns were indistinguishable from random noise. While the recent pattern at 06:30 ET aligns with this strategy, investors should remain cautious, as historical data does not support consistent profitability with this approach. A 30-day event study is recommended for broader context.

Uniswap appears to have completed a short-term bullish reversal, with technical indicators confirming strength in the 24-hour timeframe. The price may test the $9.72 level again, but caution is warranted due to the overbought RSI and lack of confirmation in the broader backtest. A pullback to the $9.686 or $9.666 levels is a potential near-term risk, but as long as these levels hold, the bullish momentum could continue. Investors should monitor the 200-period daily SMA and watch for divergences in the MACD or RSI to confirm the trend’s durability.