Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT): October 9, 2025

• Price tested key resistance at $8.10 before falling back toward $7.70.
• RSI and MACD both indicated bearish momentum, with RSI hitting oversold levels.
• Volatility expanded in the morning, with large volume spikes below $7.80.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased uncertainty in the market.
• Fibonacci levels at $7.77 and $7.69 became focal points of short-term support.

At 12:00 ET on October 9, 2025, Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $7.904 and closed at $7.743. The 24-hour session reached a high of $8.117 and a low of $7.685. Total volume amounted to 1,915,944.49 with a notional turnover of $15,243,075. The price action reflected a broad pullback from a late-day high, with a bearish bias emerging in the final 6 hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed a distinct bearish reversal at the $8.10–$8.05 resistance cluster, marked by a series of long upper shadows and engulfing bearish patterns. A strong pinbar appeared at $8.05, signaling rejection. The price then entered a downward spiral, breaking below $7.90 and forming a broad bearish channel. A key support zone developed around $7.77–$7.74, where the price found temporary relief after a sharp drop from $7.85.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below price action, forming a bearish crossover. The 50-period line acted as a short-term resistance, which the price failed to reclaim after the 21:30 ET swing high. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages confirmed a bearish trend, with the price remaining below both lines, indicating ongoing pressure from the short side.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line around 21:15 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 late in the session, reaching as low as 27.3 at 09:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. However, divergence between the RSI and price action suggested caution—despite the oversold reading, the RSI failed to make a higher low during the bounce from $7.74 to $7.85. This implied weakening bearish momentum and potential short-term support at the $7.77–$7.74 level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a volatility expansion during the session, particularly after 08:30 ET when the price broke below the lower band at $7.71. The bands remained wide for most of the session, indicating a lack of consolidation. Price action remained below the 20-period moving average within the lower band, showing continued bearish bias. However, a contraction phase began around 15:15 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term reversal or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 16:30 ET, with 65,416.22 volume, coinciding with a sharp sell-off from $8.09 to $8.04. Another large volume block appeared at 08:30 ET, during the price drop to $7.77. Notional turnover exceeded $1.5 million during these critical breaks, reinforcing bearish conviction. However, a divergence between price and volume was observed in the final 4 hours of the session—price made a modest rebound to $7.85 but failed to do so with strong volume, suggesting weak follow-through buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing high of $8.117 and the swing low of $7.685, key levels emerged at $7.802 (38.2%), $7.738 (50%), and $7.676 (61.8%). The price stalled at $7.77–$7.74 near the 50%–61.8% retracement levels, with a potential bounce expected if the 38.2% level at $7.802 becomes a short-term resistance. The 61.8% level at $7.676 remains a critical support area, and any break below could trigger a test of the $7.60 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a break below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the lower Bollinger Band and an RSI reading under 30. The stop-loss is placed just above the nearest swing high, with a target of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach aligns with observed bearish momentum and key support levels identified during the session. Given the low RSI reading and strong bearish candlestick structures, the strategy could have captured a significant portion of the 14% decline from the peak to the trough.