Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT): Bullish Breakout Amid High Momentum

• Price surged 6.8% on strong volume, forming bullish patterns near key resistance
• RSI hit overbought territory as price hovered above 20SMA and 50SMA on 15-min chart
• Volatility expanded with price breaching Bollinger Band upper limit during afternoon ET
• Turnover rose sharply during 3–5 PM ET, confirming strength in breakout move
• Key support tested at $8.20–8.25; resistance confirmed near $8.33–8.35

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $8.072 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $8.313 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, achieving a high of $8.398 and a low of $8.072. The pair surged 6.8% over 24 hours on strong volume of 1,707,070.08 and turnover of $14.3 million, indicating significant short-term conviction in the rally.

Structure & Formations
Price formed a strong bullish continuation pattern in the early afternoon ET as it broke through the $8.33–8.35 resistance cluster, confirmed by strong volume and a large bullish candle. A key support area emerged at $8.20–8.25 as price corrected toward the close of the day. A morning session bearish reversal pattern failed to hold, and a long lower wick on the candle at $8.222 suggested rejection of the sell-off.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, UNIUSDT closed above both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, signaling short-term bullish momentum. For daily context, the 50-day SMA is around $8.15, while the 200-day SMA is near $7.90, implying the rally is still within the broader uptrend.

MACD & RSI
The MACD crossed above the signal line in the early afternoon ET, forming a bullish crossover with expanding histogram bars, reinforcing the strength of the rally. RSI reached overbought territory (78–80) near the close, suggesting potential for a pullback, though strong volume suggests that buyers may defend the $8.20–8.25 level.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply after 3 PM ET as the price surged above the upper Bollinger Band, confirming a breakout. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased from ~0.03 to ~0.07, indicating heightened short-term uncertainty and momentum. Price has now retracted slightly toward the middle band, suggesting potential consolidation before the next leg.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged sharply during the breakout phase between 3–5 PM ET, peaking at over 170,000 on a single 15-minute candle. Turnover aligned with the volume increase, with the highest notional value during the same period. A divergence between volume and price was not observed, reinforcing the strength of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $8.072 to $8.398, the 61.8% retracement level is at $8.283, and the 38.2% is at $8.262. These levels appear to have acted as dynamic support during the evening’s correction. On a daily basis, the 61.8% retracement of the prior month’s range lies at ~$8.45, suggesting further upside potential if the rally continues.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position when UNIUSDT closes above the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and RSI above 60. A stop-loss could be placed below the 20-period SMA or a recent swing low. Targets might include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the next psychological level at $8.40. If implemented over the past 30 days, this approach could have yielded positive returns with a reasonable risk-to-reward profile, particularly when volatility and volume aligned.