Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT)

• Price declined from $8.432 to $7.816 amid increasing bearish momentum.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential near-term reversal.
• Volume surged during the sharp sell-off, confirming bearish pressure in the 24-hour window.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the downturn, reflecting heightened volatility.
• Key support at $7.813 and resistance at $8.208 emerged from Fibonacci and swing levels.

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $8.403 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.816 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $8.432 and a low of $7.813 during the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 1,896,116.16, with notional turnover of approximately $15,240,000. The pair exhibited strong bearish bias, especially from 04:15 to 06:45 ET, when it dropped sharply to $7.813.

Structure & Formations

Price action from 04:15 to 06:45 ET reflected a strong breakdown through key Fibonacci levels, with the 61.8% retracement at $7.974 acting as resistance before giving way. A long-bodied bearish candle formed around $8.208 at 04:15 ET, followed by a deep gap down into a bearish engulfing pattern from 04:30 to 05:00 ET. The final hour saw a consolidation phase, ending with a bearish spinning top at $7.816, signaling exhaustion in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both crossed below key swing lows around $8.208 and $8.352, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA all aligned to form a bearish convergence. Price closed below the 50DMA for the first time in days, indicating weakening bullish sentiment and a shift in control to sellers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish for most of the 24-hour window, with the histogram expanding during the sharp sell-off. RSI crossed below 30 at 05:00 ET and remained in oversold territory until the end of the period, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the lack of divergence between price and RSI implies that bearish momentum may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically as price moved from $8.352 to $7.813, with the bands widening significantly. Price spent the final 7 hours within the lower band, indicating high bearish pressure. The narrowest contraction occurred before 04:15 ET, acting as a precursor to the sharp move down. This setup suggests that traders should monitor for a potential retest of the $7.813 low.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown at 04:15 to 04:45 ET, with the largest single candle (amount 28) printing 558,973.04 volume and closing at $8.109. This was followed by a continuation of selling with strong volume at $7.813. Notional turnover mirrored the price drop, with the majority of the $15,240,000 in turnover occurring after 04:00 ET. The lack of buying interest during the rebound attempts suggests bearish control is intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

A major retracement was applied to the recent swing from $8.432 (17:30 ET) to $7.813 (06:45 ET). The 61.8% level at $7.974 acted as resistance, followed by the 38.2% level at $8.157. A smaller retracement from $8.223 (04:30 ET) to $8.045 (08:15 ET) showed support at $8.147. These levels may serve as potential targets for short-term rebounds or retests.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy leverages RSI oversold conditions and volume confirmation for long entries. Given the RSI hitting below 30 with a strong volume spike during the breakdown, a buy setup could be tested at a retest of the $7.813 low. A stop-loss could be placed below $7.79, and a profit target could be aligned with the 38.2% retracement at $8.147. This strategy would be best executed on the 1-hour timeframe, with confirmation from volume and MACD divergence.