Market Overview: Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) 24-Hour Technical Summary

Summary
• UNIUSDT dropped 10.65% in 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• RSI hit oversold territory, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded as the pair broke below the lower Bollinger Band.

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $9.006 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.777 by 12:00 ET the next day, hitting an intraday high of $9.184 and a low of $7.742. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 20,664,775.62 USDT, while total turnover reached approximately $168.8 million, reflecting heightened volatility and trading interest.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish breakdown after forming a large bearish engulfing pattern at 18:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. Key support levels emerged at $8.40 and $7.96, with a critical breakdown below $8.13 reinforcing bearish sentiment. Resistance is now likely to form near the 20-period moving average, currently at $8.46. A potential test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent swing high (~$8.85) could occur if a short-term bounce materializes.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA ($8.46) crossed below the 50-period MA ($8.51), forming a death cross. Daily moving averages suggest the pair remains in a downtrend, with the 50-day MA at $9.05, the 100-day at $9.45, and the 200-day at $9.80 forming a descending cluster.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish as it crossed below the signal line, with a negative histogram expanding. RSI has been in oversold territory for much of the session, currently sitting near 28. This could signal a temporary pause in the decline but does not confirm a reversal. Momentum remains decisively bearish, with no strong signs of short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 15:30 ET, indicating heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion. The bands have widened from ~$0.20 to ~$1.15, confirming a significant expansion in trading range. If price stabilizes near the lower band, a retest of the mid-band ($8.43) could occur, but a sustained move above it is unlikely without a catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 15:00 ET as price accelerated lower, with the largest single 15-minute volume spike occurring at 15:00 ET (741,120.26 USDT). Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming bearish conviction. Price and volume aligned well, with no notable divergences.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the most recent 15-minute swing (~$8.77) was broken, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. Daily Fibonacci levels show key potential support at $7.91 (61.8%), with $7.45 as a possible target if the trend accelerates.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy of buying UNIUSDT when it forms a Bearish Engulfing pattern and RSI is oversold, then holding for 3 days, showed poor performance. The win rate was only 20%, with a maximum drawdown of 80%. The average return per trade was -30.6%, indicating significant losses. Of the 5 trades executed, 2 were profitable while 3 resulted in losses. Given the bearish momentum and RSI in oversold territory, a similar strategy would likely result in an entry near current levels. However, without a strong reversal signal, this could lead to further losses if the downtrend continues.