Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) on 2025-10-22

• Price declined from $6.63 to $6.14, breaking below key support at $6.40
• Volume surged in early hours, signaling heightened bearish momentum
• RSI-14 likely oversold below 30, hinting at potential short-term bounce
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day, suggesting increased volatility ahead
• Bearish engulfing candles formed during sharp 15-minute declines

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $6.58 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $6.14 on 2025-10-22 at the same time. The 24-hour range was $6.63 to $6.05, with total volume of 1,728,119.97 and notional turnover of $10,187,030.36. Price action suggests bearish exhaustion in late hours but potential for a short-term bounce.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key psychological support at $6.40 during the early morning, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at $6.30–$6.229. This pattern was confirmed by low closing levels on several 15-minute candles. A doji formed around $6.20, indicating potential indecision between buyers and sellers. Resistance levels to watch include $6.25 and $6.30, while support now resides at $6.15 and $6.10.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50 EMA) are bearish, with the 50 EMA crossing below the 20 EMA to form a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA also trends downward, confirming the broader bearish bias. However, as price has pulled back closer to the 50 EMA, a possible retracement toward the 20 EMA could offer entry points for short-term bounces.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the afternoon, with bearish divergence forming between price and momentum. RSI-14 dipped below 30 in early morning trading, hitting a low of 22, suggesting the pair is in oversold territory. This may hint at near-term buying interest, though a sustained close above $6.20 is needed to validate a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands compressed around midday, with price trading near the lower band, signaling high volatility and potential for a breakout or breakdown. The 20-period standard deviation widened in the late morning, indicating increased uncertainty and a potential reversal point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 15-minute candle at 17:00 ET, with over 232,787.3 UNI traded as price dropped from $6.60 to $6.505. This divergence between volume and price suggests strong bearish conviction. Turnover also surged during this period, confirming the move. However, volume decreased later in the 24-hour window as price consolidated, hinting at possible exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent bearish move from $6.63 to $6.14, the key levels are $6.37 (23.6%), $6.29 (38.2%), and $6.22 (61.8%). Price has already rejected at $6.29 and $6.37, suggesting these levels may now act as dynamic resistance. A break above $6.37 could trigger a test of the $6.40 psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves targeting short entries when RSI-14 dips below 30 and a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-minute chart. Given the current setup, this condition was met during the early morning decline. The next step is to define the correct exchange ticker—common choices are UNIUSDT (Binance), UNI-USD (Coinbase), or UNIUSD (Kraken). Once confirmed, RSI-14 and daily OHLC data can be extracted to run a 1-day short-side backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22. This could validate the strategy’s efficacy in similar market conditions.

Looking ahead, traders may watch for a rebound test of $6.25–$6.30 as key resistance. A failure to hold above $6.10 could trigger further bearish momentum. As always, market conditions can shift rapidly, and volatility remains elevated.