Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) - 2025-10-04

• Price action showed bearish consolidation from 8.492 to 7.933
• Volatility expanded early with a 15-minute candle reaching 8.492
• RSI indicated oversold conditions in the last 4 hours
• Bollinger Bands narrowed toward session close, signaling potential breakout
• Volume increased during key support tests, confirming bearish momentum

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at 8.287 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 7.933 on 2025-10-04 at the same time. The 24-hour range was 8.494 (high) to 7.921 (low). Total volume amounted to 4,743,204.17 UNI, with a notional turnover of $39,469,490.63 (assuming 1 UNI ≈ $1.00).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bearish trend with key support levels forming around 8.18–8.20 and 7.92–7.94. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 16:00–18:00 UTC as price moved from 8.34 to 8.18 in two 15-minute candles. A doji formed at 01:30–01:45 UTC near 8.107, indicating potential indecision. Resistance levels include 8.30–8.32 and 8.40–8.42, both of which failed during the session.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a bearish bias. Price fell below both moving averages after 18:00 UTC and remained beneath them for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are not available for the current time frame but suggest a bearish setup based on the trend continuation from previous days.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines turned negative and remained in the bearish zone for most of the session, confirming the downward bias. The signal line crossed below the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. RSI approached oversold territory in the last 4 hours, reaching as low as 28–30, but failed to generate a reversal, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session as price hit the upper band at 8.494. This was followed by a sharp contraction as price moved lower and settled near the lower band by 05:00–06:00 UTC. The narrowing bands during that period indicated consolidation, which was followed by a bearish breakout. Price closed near the lower band again at the end of the session, signaling possible further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key support tests, particularly around 05:00–06:00 UTC and again at 12:00–15:00 UTC. These spikes aligned with price declines, confirming bearish momentum. Notional turnover increased during these periods as well, suggesting strong participation from large traders and algorithmic sell pressures. No significant divergences were noted between price and turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 8.492 to 7.921, the key levels are:- 23.6%: 8.322
- 38.2%: 8.263
- 50.0%: 8.206
- 61.8%: 8.150
- 78.6%: 8.075

The price has tested and failed at both the 38.2% and 50.0% retracement levels, suggesting the bearish trend could continue to the 78.6% level or lower. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level for the recent downleg appears to be around 7.90–7.92, where the price has consolidated recently.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and key support tests in the last 24 hours, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting UNIUSDT when price breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci level with confirmation from a bearish candlestick formation and a negative MACD crossover. Stops could be placed just above key resistance levels (8.18–8.20), and targets could be placed at 7.90 and 7.85. This approach could be tested on historical 15-minute data to evaluate its performance during similar bearish setups.