Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) – 2025-09-24

• Price action showed a bearish bias, with a 24-hour low at $7.937 and a high at $8.196.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions at key highs and oversold readings during the early morning dip.
• Volatility spiked during the 4–7 AM ET window, with volume peaking at $133,901 notional turnover in a 15-minute candle.
• Price consolidation appears near $8.10, a potential support level after multiple retests.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early on 24th at $8.106, reinforcing bearish sentiment ahead of a recovery attempt.

The 24-hour price action for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $8.142 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at $8.095 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $8.196 and a low of $7.937, showing a bearish bias and a range of $0.259. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,339,013.56, with notional turnover at $10,958,036.58. This indicates strong activity, especially during price pullbacks.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $8.106 early on the 24th, signaling a potential short-term top. A doji appeared near $8.132 as the price tried to recover, indicating indecision. Key support levels emerged around $8.10, $8.05, and $8.00, while resistance levels were noted at $8.15, $8.18, and $8.20. The price appears to be consolidating near $8.10, which has been tested multiple times during the 24-hour window. A break below this level could accelerate the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was slightly above the 50-period MA in the morning, suggesting a bullish bias early on, but reversed to a death cross by late morning. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish trend. The 100-period MA remained stable around $8.13–8.15, acting as a dynamic resistance. Price tested the 50-period MA multiple times, failing to hold it above.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative by late morning, confirming bearish momentum. RSI peaked near 80 at the high of $8.196, indicating overbought conditions and a likely pullback. A drop to 30 at the 4 AM ET low showed an oversold condition, suggesting a possible bounce. However, the RSI did not close above 50, implying bearish bias remains intact. A retest of $8.10 could trigger a further pullback if RSI fails to break above 50 again.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 4–7 AM ET period, with the Bollinger Bands widening to ~$0.085 range. Price tested the lower band at $7.94 before bouncing back toward the middle band. This suggests that volatility is settling and the market is returning to a more stable range. The current price of $8.095 sits near the middle band, indicating a potential consolidation phase ahead. A break of the lower band would likely trigger another bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 5 AM–7 AM ET period, with a 15-minute candle on the 4–4:15 AM window showing $133,901 in notional turnover. This spike in volume occurred during a sharp price drop to $7.937, indicating strong bearish conviction. However, volume during the recovery attempt has been relatively low, suggesting a lack of buyer interest. This divergence between price and volume raises concerns about the sustainability of the current rally and may signal a deeper pullback if volume remains weak.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing high of $8.196 and low of $7.937, the 38.2% retracement is at $8.058, and the 61.8% is at $8.093. The current price of $8.095 is very close to the 61.8% level, indicating a potential support zone. A failure to hold this level could see the price drop to the 50% retracement at $8.065 or the 78.6% at $8.026. Traders may watch these levels for signs of a potential reversal or continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and multiple failed retests of key support levels, a backtest could focus on a short bias strategy when a bearish engulfing candle forms at key resistance levels. The strategy could include entry at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop loss placed just above the high of the pattern. A take profit target could be placed at the next Fibonacci support level (e.g., $8.058 or $8.093), depending on the time frame. This approach may be tested using historical data from the last 30 days to assess its effectiveness during volatile periods such as the one seen on the 24th. The MACD and RSI would act as filters to confirm bearish momentum before entry, while the Bollinger Bands would help identify periods of low volatility for optimal trade setup.