Market Overview: TUTUSDC (Tutorial/USDC) on 2025-10-03

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• TUTUSDC declined 0.33% in 24 hours, closing at $0.08381 after a choppy consolidation phase.
• Strongest bearish pressure observed between 0.0832 and 0.0838, with a bearish engulfing pattern at the session low.
• Volatility remained subdued, with Bollinger Bands narrowing late in the session, suggesting potential directionality ahead.
• RSI hovered near the 40 level, indicating moderate oversold conditions but no clear breakout momentum.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, TUTUSDC opened at $0.08383 and traded between $0.08431 and $0.08253 over the past 24 hours. The pair closed at $0.08381, down 0.33%. Total volume was 3,356,196.0 units, and notional turnover amounted to $278,040.00. The price action reflected a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with a bearish bias emerging after 06:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart revealed a key support level forming between $0.0828 and $0.0832, which held during multiple attempts at a rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed near the session low, confirming short-term bearish momentum. A doji formed at $0.08383, indicating indecision as the price closed near the opening level of the 24-hour session. Resistance appears to be strengthening at $0.0840–$0.0842, where multiple failed attempts to push higher were recorded.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a tightening crossover, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The 50-period MA remained above the 20-period MA, indicating a slight bearish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is still above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, maintaining a neutral to bearish tone for the broader trend.

Bollinger Bands remained relatively narrow for much of the session, contracting after 05:30 ET and expanding again after 06:45 ET. This contraction may signal a potential breakout or breakdown, with the price currently hovering near the mid-band, suggesting mixed signals from volatility.

Momentum Indicators and Fibonacci Levels

The RSI moved within the 35–45 range for most of the session, suggesting a moderate oversold condition without strong bullish momentum. MACD crossed below the signal line late in the session, confirming a weakening in the bullish case. The histogram showed a slight bearish divergence after 02:00 ET, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern observed in price.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the high of $0.08431 to the low of $0.08253 revealed that the price found support at the 38.2% and 61.8% levels. The 0.618 retracement at $0.08335 acted as a key floor for several hours, before the price continued to slide into the final hours.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the early morning hours in New York, particularly between 03:30 and 04:30 ET, when the price rallied to $0.0839. This was followed by a sharp drop in both price and volume, suggesting the strength behind the rally was short-lived. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with the highest activity observed around $0.0833–$0.0838. Divergence between price and volume during this period suggests weakening conviction in the short-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish engulfing and doji patterns as short-term sell signals, combined with a 50-period MA cross below the 20-period MA as a confirmation. Stops could be placed slightly above key resistance levels such as $0.0840–0.0842, with a target near the 0.0828 support zone. If applied to a 15-minute chart over a 24-hour period, this approach could test for the effectiveness of pattern-based entries in a low-volatility, range-bound environment. However, due to the flat profile, the strategy would need to be combined with volatility filters or higher timeframes to avoid false signals.