Market Overview: TUTUSDC – 24-Hour Analysis

• TUTUSDC declined from 0.02421 to 0.02329 over 24 hours, with heavy selling pressure in the last 8 hours.
• Price formed multiple bearish patterns including engulfing and lower shadows, suggesting further weakness.
• Volatility increased in the late session, with a large range candle closing near the low.
• Turnover rose sharply in early morning hours before retreating, signaling mixed investor sentiment.
• RSI and MACD indicators point to oversold conditions, though momentum is weak and bearish.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-23, TUTUSDC opened at 0.02372 and traded as high as 0.02421 before closing at 0.02329 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-24. The pair reached a low of 0.02340 during the period. Total volume amounted to 10,956,000.0 and turnover was calculated at approximately $265,546.54 (assuming 1 USDC = $1). The price action reflects a bearish sentiment with a strong pullback in the latter half of the 24-hour window.

Structure and formations show a clear downtrend, with key support levels emerging around 0.0236–0.0237 and 0.0234–0.0235. Notable bearish patterns include a bullish-to-bearish engulfing candle in the early morning session and several long lower shadows, indicating rejection of higher prices. A potential resistance zone has formed near 0.0238–0.0239, where buyers have failed to sustain momentum.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-EMA (0.0237) above the 50-EMA (0.0236), indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA is currently above the 100-EMA and the 200-EMA, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Price has been consistently below all major EMAs, suggesting continuation of the bearish bias in the near term.

MACD remains in negative territory with bearish crossovers observed, and RSI appears to be in oversold conditions (~28), but without a clear reversal signal. Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with the price hovering near the lower band, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase. A break above 0.0238 could trigger a short-lived rebound, but bears remain in control.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing (from 0.0237 to 0.02421) suggest key support at 0.0239 (38.2%) and 0.0238 (61.8%). On the daily chart, a major retracement level is forming near 0.0236, where previous support has been reinforced by candlestick rejection. These levels could act as psychological barriers for buyers if there is a short-term bounce.

Volume and turnover data show a notable spike in the early morning hours (00:00–04:00 ET), followed by a gradual decline as selling pressure picked up. The volume-to-price divergence in the last 8 hours—where volume increased on lower prices—signals strong bearish conviction. However, a lack of follow-through after key lows suggests exhaustion may be nearing.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine the trading strategy for TUTUSDC, a backtesting approach based on RSI and oversold conditions is being considered. The idea is to generate buy signals when the 14-period RSI falls below 30, indicating potential oversold levels, and hold the position for a 5-day period. This strategy assumes the market is cyclical and that extreme RSI readings may precede a recovery. However, due to the unavailability of RSI data for TUTUSDC at this time, the exact performance and success rate of this hypothesis cannot yet be validated. Once the RSI data is secured, a full backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-24 will be conducted to determine the strategy's viability.