Market Overview: TUTUSDC on 2025-09-15

• Price declined by 1.28% over 24 hours, closing at 0.06831 after a volatile mid-session breakdown.
• Key support tested at 0.06805, with 0.0679–0.0681 likely to dictate near-term direction.
• Volume spiked in early recovery, but turnover divergence suggests weak conviction.
• MACD turned bearish with negative histogram; RSI at 49 indicates neutral momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened mid-session, reflecting increased volatility and potential for range retesting.

The TUTUSDC pair opened at 0.06903 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.06919, fell to a low of 0.06780, and closed at 0.06831 as of 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 232,062.75, with notional turnover at $15,492.39. A sharp breakdown from the midday high was followed by a partial recovery, but bears remain in control.

Structure & Formations

Price declined into a descending triangle formation with support at 0.06805 and resistance at 0.0685–0.0686. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the 55–60-minute window, followed by a long lower wick in the 15–30-minute window, suggesting a failed short-term rebound. A doji formed around 0.06806, indicating indecision at key support.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish, with the 20-period line below the 50-period and price. On the daily chart, price remains above the 200-period line, which offers a psychological floor at 0.0675. However, the 50-period line is a near-term concern, currently at 0.0682, and could trigger further consolidation if broken.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the 13:00–14:30 window, crossing below the signal line, with a bearish histogram confirming the trend. RSI reached a low of 38.2%, consistent with a Fibonacci retracement level and indicating oversold conditions. However, a lack of follow-through suggests a cautious short-term outlook.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the 5:00–14:00 ET window, with price swinging from near the top of the band to the lower band. At the close, price sat within the lower half of the bands at 0.06831, suggesting a potential bounce or further retest of 0.06805 in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 10:00–12:00 ET window as price retested 0.06805, but turnover remained flat, indicating weak conviction. A divergence emerged between volume and price during the 6:00–7:00 ET window, with declining volume despite a modest rebound, suggesting the recovery may lack follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement level at 0.0683 aligns with recent price consolidation, while the 61.8% level at 0.0681 is a critical near-term support. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level at 0.0680 remains key for the long-term trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern, MACD crossover, and RSI oversold reading, a short-bias trade setup could be considered. A potential trade entry could occur on a break below 0.0681 with a stop above 0.0683, targeting 0.0679–0.0677. The backtest would evaluate the effectiveness of such a strategy over multiple 24-hour cycles, focusing on entry confirmation via candlestick patterns and indicator alignment. This aligns with the observed structure and momentum signals from the recent breakdown.