Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC): 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-21

• Price opened at 0.0911 and closed at 0.07879, declining by ~13.5% over 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, then contracted, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.
• RSI reached oversold territory (30s), signaling possible near-term bounce, but momentum remains weak.
• Volume surged to a peak of ~2.7 million in the early overnight hours, but price failed to follow through.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early, followed by a possible bullish reversal near 0.0780.

TUTUSDC opened at 0.0911 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.09327, and closed at 0.07879 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume traded was ~11.1 million, with a notional turnover of ~$1,066,663. The pair has shown a clear bearish bias amid expanding early volatility and moderate volume-driven sell-offs.

Structure & Formations

The price of TUTUSDC formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern in the first few hours of the 24-hour window, signaling a decisive shift in sentiment. A doji formed near the 0.0872–0.0874 range in the overnight session, hinting at indecision. Key support levels include 0.0780 and 0.0765, both of which have been tested multiple times, while resistance remains at 0.0885 and 0.0895. A potential test of 0.0810 could serve as a near-term pivot point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has been below both the 20 and 50-period EMAs, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period MA is sloping downward, reinforcing the downward pressure. On the daily chart, TUTUSDC is well below the 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs, with the 200-day MA acting as a long-term reference point. A cross above the 20 and 50 EMAs could indicate a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained negative with a narrowing histogram, signaling waning momentum. The RSI has dropped into the 30–35 range, suggesting oversold conditions; however, the divergence between price and RSI is weak, implying that any bounce may be limited. Momentum may need to cross back above zero on the MACD before a meaningful reversal can be considered.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded early in the 24-hour window, as evidenced by the widening Bollinger Bands, but has since contracted. Price currently sits near the lower band at 0.07879, suggesting oversold conditions. A breakout above the upper band of 0.0805–0.0810 could indicate a short-term reversal, but it remains unlikely without stronger volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to ~2.7 million in the early hours of 2025-09-21 but failed to support a meaningful rebound in price. Notional turnover peaked at ~$23,000 during this period. A divergence between volume and price suggests weakening bearish momentum. A sustained increase in volume on a rebound to the 0.0810–0.0820 range could confirm a near-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent 0.09327 high to the 0.07820 low show 0.0780 as a key 61.8% retracement level, which has been tested multiple times. A rebound above 0.0810 (38.2% retracement) would indicate a possible short-term recovery, but a break below 0.0765 (76.4% extension) could accelerate the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes entering long positions when RSI dips below 30 and closes above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss at the prior 24-hour low and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Historical data from this 24-hour period suggests such a signal was triggered near 0.0780, but volume was insufficient to confirm a reversal. A more robust signal would require both a rebound in volume and price confirmation above the 0.0810–0.0820 zone before entering long. This setup could serve as a viable short-term trade if volatility increases and bullish momentum builds.