Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) on 2025-11-14

Summary
• Price declined sharply overnight, breaking below 0.01730, with low-volume consolidation in the morning.
• RSI and momentum indicators suggest potential oversold conditions around 0.01665–0.01680.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price hovering near the lower band.

TUTUSDC opened at 0.01784 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.01655 (12:00 ET), hitting a high of 0.01755 and a low of 0.01609. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 2,295,988.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $39,033 at current USDC value.

The price structure over the last 24 hours reveals a bearish bias, with strong resistance forming around 0.01755–0.01760 and key support levels consolidating near 0.01665 and 0.01639. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged on the 15-minute chart during the early morning hours, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward move. A doji candle appeared near 0.01685, indicating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers but failing to push the price back above 0.01700.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show TUTUSDC trading below its 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day SMAs remain in a bullish arrangement, though the recent 24-hour move brings the price closer to the 50-day MA, suggesting a possible short-term reversal or consolidation phase.

The RSI has dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, although this does not always guarantee a reversal. MACD lines have turned negative and crossed below the signal line, supporting the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction overnight, expanding later in the session as the price accelerated lower. Price has remained near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or test of the 0.01639 support level could be in play.

Volume spiked during the sharp drop to 0.01609, confirming the bearish move. However, the volume has since cooled off as the price consolidates near 0.01655–0.01680. This may indicate a temporary pause in the bearish pressure, though traders should remain cautious of further downside if volume fails to pick up on a new rally attempt.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 24-hour high (0.01755) to low (0.01609) show the price currently resting near the 61.8% level (~0.01645), suggesting it could either consolidate or break lower toward the 78.6% level (~0.01615) depending on the coming 24 hours’ momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “RSI Oversold (<30) + 3-day hold” strategy was tested on USDC from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14, yielding a total return of +1.49% and an annualized return of 0.30%. While the current RSI reading does indicate an oversold condition, the low Sharpe ratio (0.62) and moderate annualized return suggest this strategy may not reliably capture meaningful gains in highly liquid stablecoins like USDC. Traders might consider combining RSI with stronger volume signals or longer-term trend indicators for better alignment with current market structure.
Looking ahead, TUTUSDC appears to be in a consolidation phase near 0.01655–0.01680 after a sharp sell-off. A break below 0.01639 could trigger further downward movement toward 0.01609, but a rebound above 0.01685 could indicate a short-term reversal. Investors should remain cautious about sudden price swings and monitor volume for confirmation of any directional move.