Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) – 2025-10-07

• Price declined sharply from $0.10045 to $0.08268 over 24 hours, driven by a major selloff in the early hours.
• Momentum turned bearish with RSI falling below 30 and MACD in negative territory.
• Volume surged during the initial drop but subsided as price consolidated near support at $0.0825.
• Bollinger Bands constricted late in the session, suggesting potential volatility ahead.

The pair TUTUSDC opened at $0.0993 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.10068, and hit a 24-hour low of $0.08494 before closing at $0.08268 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET. Total volume traded in the 24-hour window was 52,374,504, with a notional turnover of $4,378,775. The price action was characterized by a sharp bearish reversal, especially after a long bearish candle formed during the 2025-1006 171500–173000 window.

Structure & Formations

The price formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns early in the session, with the most significant occurring between 171500–173000, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support level appears to have formed around $0.0825–0.0830, where price found repeated buyers late in the day. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the high of $0.10045 to the low of $0.08268 lands near $0.0894, suggesting a potential short-term resistance if the price retests this level.

Moving Averages, MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both dipped below the price, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 and remained in oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, though not a full reversal. MACD remained in negative territory with bearish divergence in the histogram. Bollinger Bands tightened in the final hours, suggesting a possible breakout or expansion in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial selloff, particularly in the candle ending at 2025-1006 173000, with 1,339,671 units traded. This was followed by a gradual decline in volume as price approached the $0.0825 support. Turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the bearish sentiment during the initial phase but diverging slightly in the late hours as the price stabilized.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish engulfing and the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $0.0894, a backtest could evaluate a short-biased strategy: entering a short position after a bearish close below the 20-period moving average and exiting on a 2% stop loss or a 5% target at $0.0850. The RSI’s oversold condition suggests a bounce could occur, but a failure to close above the 50-period MA would confirm continuation of the downtrend.

Looking ahead, the price may consolidate near the $0.0825 support before attempting a small rebound or resuming the bearish trend. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a reversal, but caution is warranted due to the strong bearish structure and low momentum readings.