Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) - 2025-09-19

• Price surged from 0.0673 to 0.0759 on high-volume late-day buying.
• Key resistance tested and cleared at 0.0705–0.0710, now likely support.
• Volatility spiked midday, expanding from narrow consolidation to 0.0759 high.
• RSI reached overbought levels by 16:00 ET, suggesting potential pullback.
• Volume increased sharply after 00:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum.

The TUTUSDC pair opened at 0.0673 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0759 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.07612 and a low of 0.06642. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 2,511,894, while notional turnover was 176.93 (calculated as volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bullish breakout from a descending triangle pattern that developed from 0.06642 to 0.0705. A key breakout above the 0.0705–0.0710 resistance cluster occurred around 02:30 ET and was confirmed by a large bullish candle with high volume. A 15-minute doji formed near 0.07308 at 12:45 ET, indicating potential short-term indecision after the breakout. A large engulfing candle at 15:45 ET confirmed the trend continuation toward the 0.0759 high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages after the 02:30 ET breakout, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period moving averages are not currently in play, but the price remains well above the 100-period MA, suggesting a positive intermediate-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero around 03:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum, and has remained in positive territory since. The RSI spiked to overbought territory (above 70) at 16:00 ET, suggesting short-term risk of a correction. However, the RSI has not yet entered a bearish divergence, indicating the uptrend remains intact for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 00:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening and price reaching the upper band at 0.0759 by 16:00 ET. Price has spent most of the session above the middle band, indicating bullish pressure. A contraction in the bands could signal a potential pullback in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 00:00 ET, confirming the breakout and subsequent rally. Turnover increased in tandem, especially between 02:30–05:30 ET, supporting the move higher. A divergence between price and volume has not yet emerged, so the bullish narrative remains intact for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.06642 to 0.0705 swing, the 0.0710–0.0716 range aligns with the 161.8% and 261.8% extension levels, suggesting potential targets for further bullish movement. The 0.0759 high is near the 38.2% retrace level of the recent correction from that high, indicating it could be a temporary consolidation level before testing higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering long positions after a confirmed breakout above a 15-minute descending triangle pattern, with a stop-loss placed below the pattern’s support level. This aligns with the observed price behavior on the TUTUSDC pair, where a breakout above 0.0705 was confirmed by high volume and a large bullish candle. The 0.06642 level could now serve as a key support for potential retests, making it a logical stop-loss target. A profit target based on Fibonacci extensions could be set at 0.0716–0.0720, with further upside potential to 0.074–0.075 based on current momentum and volume confirmation. This approach would benefit from a well-defined risk/reward ratio and could be effective in capturing the continuation of the current bullish trend.