Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC on 2025-09-22

• Price surged from $0.0783 to $0.0944 before retreating to $0.0844, showing strong volatility and mixed momentum.
• Volume surged during the bullish breakout, with over 2.5M contracts traded in the 05:30–06:00 ET window.
• RSI hit overbought levels (above 70) and has since fallen, suggesting potential short-term corrections.
• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility during the rally, with price now consolidating near the midline.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak, hinting at a potential reversal if support at $0.0833 fails.

The TUTUSDC pair opened at $0.0783 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.0944, and closed at $0.0844 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume reached 62.57 million contracts, with a notional turnover of $5.01 million over the 24-hour period. Price saw a sharp intraday rally before retreating, with volatility and volume increasing in line with the move.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish breakout between 05:30–06:00 ET, reaching $0.0944, but later reversed with a bearish engulfing pattern at the peak. Notable resistance was identified at $0.0894 and $0.0944, while key support levels appear at $0.0833 and $0.0794. A doji formed at $0.0874, signaling indecision and potential consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show price breaking above the 20SMA but failing to hold above the 50SMA. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain below the current price, indicating that the recent rally is largely intraday and has not yet captured broader trend support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive during the breakout but has since declined, suggesting waning momentum. RSI spiked into overbought territory (above 70) and has since retreated, now hovering near 50, indicating balanced short-term pressure. A bearish crossover in MACD may confirm a pullback if price fails to hold above $0.0844.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the breakout with price reaching the upper band at $0.0944. Current price action is consolidating near the midline of the bands, indicating a potential range-bound phase. A retest of the lower band at $0.0818 could confirm bearish pressure if volume increases alongside the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning ET rally, peaking at over 5.5 million contracts in the 05:30–06:00 ET window. However, volume has since declined, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying. Turnover has mirrored volume, with a high of $1.2 million during the peak rally. Divergence between price and volume during the pullback suggests weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0783 to $0.0944, key levels at 38.2% ($0.0854) and 61.8% ($0.0818) are now being tested. If the price breaks below $0.0818, it could signal a deeper correction toward the next major support at $0.0794. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the last bullish move may align with $0.0829.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 20-period moving average on a 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set below the previous swing low. The strategy is exited when RSI falls below 50 or when price closes below the 50-period moving average. Given today’s price action, the initial entry condition was met during the morning rally, but the exit signal was triggered as RSI fell below 50 and the 50-period moving average was breached during the afternoon pullback. This aligns with the observed bearish reversal at the peak and highlights the strategy's effectiveness in capturing intraday momentum without exposing it to overnight volatility.