Market Overview for Tutorial/USD Coin on 2025-09-11

• Price surged past key resistance, closing higher with strong momentum.
• Volatility remained elevated, with price breaking out of Bollinger Band constraints.
• Turnover spiked sharply during the late-night and early-morning hours.
• RSI shows moderate overbought levels, while MACD confirms bullish momentum.
• Volume distribution aligns with price direction, reinforcing trend strength.

On September 11, 2025, Tutorial/USD Coin (TUTUSDC) opened at $0.06694 at 12:00 ET - 1, surged to a high of $0.06827, and closed at $0.06737 by 12:00 ET today. Total 24-hour volume reached 186,400, with $12.64 million in notional turnover.

Structure & Formations

Price exhibited a strong bullish bias throughout the 24-hour window, breaking above a key resistance cluster between $0.067 and $0.0673. The candlestick formations displayed a mix of strong-bodied bullish patterns, particularly around the 03:15–04:45 ET timeframe, where a significant breakout occurred. Later in the day, the price consolidated into a narrower range, suggesting exhaustion of immediate upward momentum. A large bearish candle near $0.06737 suggests a potential short-term reversal may be in play.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price spent most of the session above both 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a strong short-term uptrend. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period during the early-morning hours, reinforcing the bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from below, indicating a potential crossover and further bullish confirmation could emerge in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained positive for much of the session, with a strong bullish crossover occurring around 03:15 ET. RSI peaked above 65–70 during the afternoon hours, indicating moderate overbought conditions. While not excessively overbought, the RSI divergence from the price action during the afternoon suggests a potential pullback may be brewing. Momentum remains strong, but caution is warranted in extended overbought territory.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke out of a narrow Bollinger Band contraction during the early morning, moving above the upper band by 04:30 ET. This breakout was confirmed by a sharp volume spike and price momentum. Later in the session, price moved back into the band, suggesting a potential retest of the upper bound could occur in the next 24 hours. Volatility has increased, with a standard deviation of over 0.065% observed during the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was most concentrated between 03:15–04:45 ET and during the late afternoon, with the largest single candle occurring at 13:30 ET with 8,486 contracts traded. Turnover spiked during the breakout phase, confirming the strength of the move. Price and turnover aligned well during this period, but a divergence appears in the late afternoon as price consolidates while turnover remains elevated, signaling possible indecision or accumulation activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 03:15–04:45 ET bullish swing shows the 0.618 level at approximately $0.0673, which the price tested and slightly broke above, suggesting a continuation target of $0.0677–$0.0680. The 0.382 level at $0.0671 was a key support during the afternoon pullback. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the prior month's decline aligns with the $0.0675–$0.0677 range, reinforcing the significance of this price zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long positions during a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and volume surge. This approach aligns well with the recent price action, particularly the 03:15–04:45 ET breakout. While the strategy is promising, it would require a strict stop-loss and trailing take-profit mechanism to manage risk, especially during overbought RSI levels and potential pullbacks. A backtest over the past month would help validate the strategy’s consistency and profitability.