Market Overview: TUSDUSDT (TrueUSD/Tether) on 2025-09-18

• Price consolidation near 0.9960 suggests a stable peg, but liquidity thinness amplifies volatility spikes.
• Volume surged during the 20:30–21:00 ET selloff, indicating potential large orders or algorithmic selling pressure.
• RSI remained within mid-range, showing no clear overbought or oversold signals despite price fluctuations.
• MACD line flattened, implying waning momentum, with a potential bearish crossover forming by late ET.
• Bollinger Bands tightened overnight before a sharp break below the lower band, signaling heightened short-term bearish bias.

TUSDUSDT opened at 0.9967 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9958 the following day at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.9973 and a low of 0.9950. The total traded volume was 531,489.0 units, with a notional turnover of $528,195.00. The pair exhibited low volatility in the morning, followed by a sharp decline in the early evening.

Structure & Formations

The pair traded in a narrow range for most of the day, with key support forming near 0.9960 and a critical resistance level at 0.9970. A long lower shadow at 18:15 ET hinted at buying interest at the lower end of the range, though selling pressure quickly overpowered buyers. No strong candlestick patterns like engulfing or doji were observed; the market remained range-bound with no decisive directional bias. A breakdown below 0.9960 in the late evening confirmed a bearish shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned around 0.9962–0.9965, indicating a consolidation phase. The daily chart showed a similar flat structure, with 50-period and 200-period lines converging near 0.9963. This suggests that the 0.9963 level may act as a pivot point in the next 24 hours, with a potential breakdown expected if volatility picks up.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a slow divergence from the histogram, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The RSI remained within the 40–50 range, indicating no strong overbought or oversold conditions. However, the slight bearish bias in the MACD and the lack of upward thrust in the RSI point to a probable continuation of the current downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed in the early morning, signaling a period of low volatility. This was followed by a sharp break below the lower band at 20:30 ET, indicating a potential short-term bearish move. Price remained near the lower band for most of the night, suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure. The widening of the bands after the break highlights increased market uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 18:15–20:30 ET window, particularly with the 201,662-unit trade at 20:30 ET that drove the price down from 0.9969 to 0.9953. The high volume during this period confirms the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest turnover at $95,672 during the 20:30 ET candle. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, reinforcing the bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.9967–0.9973 swing, key levels at 38.2% (0.9970) and 61.8% (0.9968) acted as price ceilings. The 50% level (0.9969) saw a failed attempt to rally, suggesting that the 61.8% and lower retracement levels (below 0.9963) may become critical in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 15-minute MACD line crosses below the signal line and price closes below the 50-period moving average. The stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high (0.9970), and the target is set at the 0.9950 support level. Given today’s price behavior and technical setup, this strategy aligns well with observed bearish momentum. Historical backtesting could validate whether such a strategy generates a profitable edge in range-bound conditions with low volatility and defined support levels.