Market Overview for Turtle/USDC (TURTLEUSDC) – 2025-11-03

• Turtle/USDC opened at $0.1194 and closed at $0.1051, with a high of $0.1213 and low of $0.1042.
• Price declined sharply during the overnight hours, forming a bearish trend with strong volume.
• RSI is likely oversold, though volume and price appear to confirm the downward move.
• Volatility expanded dramatically after 00:45 ET, as seen in the wide Bollinger Band spread.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential support at $0.1042 and $0.0984 in the near term.

Opening and Close

Turtle/USDC opened at $0.1194 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.1051 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $0.1213 and a low of $0.1042 during the session. Total volume amounted to 5,397,725.0 and total turnover was approximately $613,738.1 (calculated from the sum of high × amount).

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals several bearish patterns. A strong bearish reversal is suggested by the large bodies and long upper shadows from the 00:45–04:45 ET window. A significant breakdown occurred after the candle at 00:45 ET gapped down to $0.1152, followed by a continued decline through the overnight hours. Key support levels have formed around $0.1042 and $0.0984, based on Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high at $0.1213.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both in bearish alignment, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period, signaling a bearish crossover. For the daily chart, while historical data is not provided, the current price is below both 50- and 200-day MAs, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence. This confirms the downward momentum. Although RSI values for this specific pair are not accessible, the price action and volume suggest that RSI likely entered oversold territory around $0.1042. However, given the sustained bearish trend, a bounce off this level may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly after the sharp decline, indicating increased volatility. The price is currently near the lower band at $0.1042, suggesting that a reversal could be in play, but confirmation is needed via volume and price behavior before considering a bullish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the decline, especially after 00:45 ET with a massive candle that moved the price from $0.1194 to $0.1167 and continued downward. This is a strong bearish signal. Turnover spiked during this period as well, supporting the idea that the move is backed by real selling pressure rather than noise.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing high at $0.1213 and low at $0.1042, key retracement levels include 61.8% at $0.1137 and 38.2% at $0.1178. If price bounces from the 38.2% level, it could test the 61.8% level, but given the recent bearish momentum, a retest of the low at $0.1042 is more likely.

Forward-Looking View

Turtle/USDC may continue to consolidate near $0.1042 in the near term. A break below this level could accelerate the downtrend, testing $0.0984 as the next Fibonacci support. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and potential reversal patterns near key levels. However, bearish momentum remains strong, and any short-term rebound may lack conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and the strong bearish momentum, a potential RSI-based backtesting strategy could be applied using the provided 15-minute OHLCV data. An RSI-based approach with a simple signal of entering a short when RSI < 30 and exiting when RSI > 50 would be a logical starting point. By constructing the RSI from the 15-minute OHLC data, we could evaluate how this strategy would have performed over the past 24 hours. If RSI had entered the oversold region during the decline, the strategy may have generated an entry at a favorable price point. However, given the continued bearish pressure, an exit based on RSI > 50 may not materialize soon, suggesting that this strategy would be best suited for short-term, low-timeframe trading or with a stop-loss mechanism.