Market Overview: TURBOUSDC on 2025-09-22

• Price dropped 0.000418 (10.2%) from 0.004064 to 0.003583 in 24h, with most of the decline occurring before 07:00 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 2025-09-21 06:45, followed by a large bearish move.
• Volume surged past 90M in the late morning, indicating high conviction selling.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential near-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility spiked, with price near the lower band for much of the session.

TURBO/USDC (TURBOUSDC) opened at 0.004064 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003583 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour range was 0.000484 (12.0%) between a high of 0.004064 and a low of 0.00358. The total volume traded was 128,124,610 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $445,672, calculated using mid-market prices.

The price structure over the past 24 hours shows a strong bearish bias, with multiple key support levels tested, including 0.00398 and 0.00387, both of which failed. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-09-21 06:45, confirming a shift in sentiment. Resistance levels at 0.00406 and 0.00404 were breached, and price failed to reclaim those levels afterward. A long lower shadow candle near the 0.003904 close indicates a brief but unsuccessful attempt to reverse the downward trend.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA to form a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA at 0.00408 and 200-day MA at 0.00403 suggest a longer-term bearish trend. MACD turned negative in the morning and remained bearish through the session. RSI dropped into oversold territory (28–31) between 08:00–09:00 ET, potentially setting up for a near-term bounce. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning sell-off, with price hovering near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility.

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off, particularly around 06:45–07:15 ET, where turnover exceeded $150,000. The divergence between the price and MACD remains neutral but suggests ongoing momentum to the downside. Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 0.004064 high to 0.00358 low show 61.8% at 0.00384, a level that failed to hold. Price appears to be approaching 38.2% (0.00393) as a potential short-term floor.

The bearish momentum is likely to persist for the next 24 hours, with a potential retest of 0.003714 as a possible short-term target, though a rebound around 0.00384–0.00387 could occur in response to the oversold RSI. Investors should remain cautious about volatility and avoid overextending long positions without clear signs of reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and confirmation from both volume and technical indicators (MACD divergence, death cross, and engulfing pattern), a backtest could be constructed around a short entry triggered by a break of the 0.00398 support with a stop above 0.00403 and a target at 0.003714. This setup would be valid during hours of high liquidity (e.g., 06:00–12:00 ET). Using the 20-period EMA as a dynamic stop loss and a trailing stop at 0.00384 could optimize risk-reward. A backtest of this strategy over the past 90 days would need to account for transaction costs and slippage, particularly during large-volume moves. This approach aligns with the current technical setup and is suitable for traders with a short-term bias.