Market Overview: Turbo/USDC on 2025-09-25

• Price declined 24 hours, closing near the session low with bearish momentum.
• RSI in oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce, but volume weak.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased volatility and a consolidation phase likely.
• No clear candlestick reversal patterns yet, but bearish engulfing and long lower shadows persist.
• Heavy volume clusters appear in the 0.003570–0.003590 range, acting as key resistance-turned-support.

The TURBOUSDC pair opened at 0.003628 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.003410 by 12:00 ET. The session high reached 0.003635, while the low was 0.003340, marking a bearish 6.14% decline. The 24-hour notional volume was 22,497,067.0, and the total turnover was approximately $79,907.69, based on the average rate.

Market structure shows a strong bearish bias with price action consistently failing to reclaim the 0.003580–0.003590 resistance zone. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.003420–0.003440, where price has previously bounced. Notable candlestick patterns include bearish engulfing and long lower shadows, suggesting continued selling pressure and weak buying interest. The 0.003561–0.003568 area may act as a short-term pivot zone in the near term.

Momentum indicators confirm the bearish drift. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 25, suggesting a potential bounce could be near, though it is likely to remain weak without accompanying volume. The 15-minute MACD has turned negative and remains below zero, reinforcing downward momentum. Bollinger Bands have expanded, signaling increased volatility and a possible consolidation phase. Price is currently sitting within the lower band on the 15-minute chart, which could indicate a near-term bounce or a deeper pullback if the support fails.

Volume and turnover appear to be diverging with price, as the largest volume clusters occur during periods of consolidation rather than sharp downward moves. This suggests a lack of conviction in the bearish move and hints that the market may be nearing a turning point. The 0.003420–0.003440 range may be critical in the next 24 hours, either as a support hold or as a break point leading to further downside. Investors may expect a short-term correction or a reversal to test the 0.003500 psychological level before the next leg down.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 15-minute swing high at 0.003610 to the low at 0.003558 highlight key levels of 0.003583 (38.2%) and 0.003569 (61.8%). These levels may serve as potential support or resistance in the short term. On the daily chart, retracement levels from a broader move indicate a possible target for the next rally at 0.003475–0.003500. If price breaks below 0.003410, further Fibonacci levels may come into play at 0.003340 and 0.003360.

The backtesting strategy described aims to identify key support and resistance levels using Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands to determine high-probability reversal entries. Given the current market structure and the price’s proximity to key Fibonacci levels and the lower Bollinger Band, this strategy could provide meaningful signals. The oversold RSI and weak volume divergence suggest a potential short-term bounce is likely if price holds above 0.003420. A break below 0.003410 may signal the need for a bearish trade setup.