Market Overview for Turbo/USDC on 2025-09-23

• Turbo/USDC edged lower on 24-hour volume of 31.5M, closing at $0.003585 amid bearish pressure.

• A 0.3% decline marked a rejection near key resistance at $0.003610 and a test of $0.003550 support.

• Volatility dipped in late hours, with a bearish dark cloud cover pattern forming near $0.003575.

• RSI (14) signaled oversold conditions, but MACD momentum weakened, hinting at potential lateral consolidation.

• Turnover dropped 12% in final 6 hours, suggesting reduced speculative activity as exhaustion set in.

TURBOUSDC opened at $0.003586 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003585 on 2025-09-23 at the same time. The 24-hour high was $0.003625, and the low was $0.003489. Total volume traded reached approximately 31.5 million contracts, with a notional turnover of around $111.7 million, reflecting a bearish bias in price action.

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a bearish structure with key resistance at $0.003610 and support at $0.003550. The price rejected the upper boundary multiple times, most notably in the early hours of 2025-09-23. A bearish dark cloud cover pattern emerged near $0.003575, signaling a potential trend reversal. A bullish engulfing pattern failed to hold near $0.003590, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover, with the 50-period line above the 20-period line.

MACD and RSI Indicators

MACD (12,26,9) showed a bearish crossover, with the line falling below the signal line. The histogram remained negative throughout the 24 hours, indicating sustained bearish momentum. The RSI (14) bottomed near 30, signaling oversold territory, but failed to produce a strong rebound, suggesting that the bearish pressure may persist. The divergence between RSI and price in the morning hours hinted at a potential consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands revealed a tightening in volatility during the midday hours, with the price trading in a narrow range between $0.003570 and $0.003590. This contraction was followed by a break below the lower band in the late afternoon, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend. The bands widened again in the final hours, reflecting increased market uncertainty and potential for further price discovery.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged to over 3.8M contracts during the early morning and early afternoon hours but dropped sharply after 18:00 ET, suggesting exhaustion in the bearish wave. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, peaking at around $13.6 million during the morning hours before declining steadily. The divergence between volume and price movement during the last four hours of the 24-hour period suggests potential consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing low of $0.003489 and swing high of $0.003625 revealed that the price found support at the 61.8% retracement level (~$0.003550). The 38.2% level (~$0.003575) acted as a key area of resistance and saw repeated rejections, suggesting it may continue to influence the near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined earlier involves a combination of Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI divergence to identify potential reversal points. Using the 38.2% and 61.8% levels in conjunction with RSI (14) divergence could help filter high-probability entry points during range-bound conditions. For instance, a long entry might be triggered on a confirmed RSI divergence and a retest of the 61.8% level, while a short entry could be activated on a rejection at the 38.2% level with bearish RSI confirmation. This approach appears to align with the observed price behavior over the past 24 hours, particularly in the late afternoon and evening hours.