Market Overview for Turbo/USDC on 2025-09-20

• Price for Turbo/USDC fell by 0.4% over 24 hours, closing near key support.
• Strong bearish momentum seen on RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded after 16:00 ET, with volume spiking by 300% during the session.
• Bollinger Bands show price within lower channel, indicating weak conviction.
• Key 15-minute pattern: bearish engulfing at 0.004113, signaling possible continuation.

The TURBOUSDC pair opened at 0.004143 at 12:00 ET–1, hit a high of 0.00418 and a low of 0.004045, and closed at 0.004149 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 54,839,704.0, and notional turnover totaled $228,531. The pair has shown a bearish bias with expanding volatility and divergent momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, price action on the 15-minute chart has shown consistent bearish control, especially after 16:00 ET when price broke below the 0.004126 support. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.004113, suggesting further downside may be in play. The 0.004115–0.004124 range appears to be a key area of consolidation, with the 0.004102 level acting as a strong psychological support that has held in multiple tests.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has been trading below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages since midday, indicating bearish control. The 50-period MA is at ~0.004134, while the 20-period is at ~0.004137, both showing downward drift. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are in a bearish alignment, with the 200-period at ~0.004156 acting as a resistance for the next leg down.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown bearish divergence, with the histogram shrinking during the recovery attempts after 19:00 ET. The RSI is currently at ~34, indicating oversold conditions, but the histogram continues to contract, suggesting bearish momentum may still hold. A rebound in RSI above 50 would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly after 16:00 ET, with the bands widening from ~0.000020 to ~0.000050. Price has remained within the lower half of the Bollinger channel, indicating bearish pressure. A break above the middle band (~0.004134) would suggest a potential reversal or consolidation into a tighter range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 15,235,512.0 at 18:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop to 0.004110. The notional turnover reached $62,057 at that time, confirming the bearish breakdown. Recent volume has been thin, suggesting traders may be taking a wait-and-see approach. Price and turnover appear in alignment, with volume acting as confirmation of bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.00418 to 0.004110, the 38.2% level is at 0.004144, and the 61.8% level is at 0.004126. Price is currently near the 61.8% level and may find temporary support there. A break below that would target the 0.004110 level again. Daily-level Fib levels are more bearish, with the 61.8% retracement at 0.004115, which has shown strong rejection.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtest strategy, consider using the 15-minute RSI as a filter to avoid false breakouts. A short signal could be triggered when price breaks the 61.8% Fibonacci level with confirmed volume and RSI below 40. A stop loss could be placed above the 38.2% retracement, while a target is the next major support at 0.004110. This setup aims to capture continuation moves in a strong bearish trend while filtering out false bounces.