Market Overview for TSTUSDT: Test/Tether 24-Hour Breakdown

• Price closed near 0.0329 after a sharp drop from 0.0346, driven by late-night bearish momentum.
• High volume in the 00:00–04:00 ET window suggests significant liquidation or shorting pressure.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 28, but price failed to rebound, indicating bearish exhaustion may not yet be complete.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, signaling increased volatility and potential continuation.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.0336 and 0.0331 suggest near-term support and resistance targets.

Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.03426 at 12:00 ET–1 and peaked at 0.0346 before declining to a 24-hour low of 0.0316 and closing at 0.0329 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 52.4 million, with turnover near $1.77 million, reflecting heightened bearish sentiment and selling pressure after 12:00 AM ET.

Structure and formations show a strong bearish bias with key resistance at 0.0342–0.0346 and support at 0.0331–0.0336. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 00:00–04:00 ET, indicating continuation of the downtrend. A doji at 03:30–04:00 ET showed brief indecision, but selling resumed afterward.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart reveal price below both 20 and 50-period lines, confirming the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits just above the 100-period line, suggesting short-term strength but no clear trend reversal.

The RSI hit oversold levels near 28, but price failed to rebound, which could either indicate weak demand or the possibility of a deepening bearish phase. MACD turned negative with bearish divergence, reinforcing the sell-off. Bollinger Bands expanded during the decline, indicating increased volatility and a potential continuation of the move toward 0.0316.

Volume and turnover spiked after 12:00 AM ET, with the largest single candle (00:00–00:15 ET) showing 884,208 volume and significant price decay. This suggests large-scale liquidation or shorting activity. Turnover and volume moved in strong alignment during the decline, supporting trend continuation.

Fibonacci retracements from the key 0.0346 to 0.0316 swing show 61.8% at 0.0329 and 38.2% at 0.0337. Price currently hovers near the 61.8% level, which may offer near-term support or retest resistance if a rebound occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The described strategy involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a confirmed bearish candlestick and rising volume. This aligns with the observed pattern from 00:00–04:00 ET. A stop loss would be placed above the 38.2% level (0.0337), while a target would be the prior swing low (0.0316). Given current positioning near 0.0329, the hypothesis would trigger a short entry with reasonable risk-to-reward and high alignment with observed technical signals.