Market Overview for TSTUSDT as of 2025-09-22

• Price opened at 0.04039 and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.03317, with volume surging during the selloff.
• A bearish trend dominates, supported by a declining RSI and strong bearish momentum on the 15-minute MACD.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 00:45 ET as TSTUSDT broke through 0.03900, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Notional turnover exceeded $120 million by 06:15 ET, highlighting a critical bearish acceleration phase.
• A key support level appears to be forming near 0.0344–0.0347, coinciding with Fibonacci 61.8% retracement levels.

TSTUSDT for Test/Tether opened at 0.04039 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and traded to a low of 0.03317 by 06:15 ET on 2025-09-22, before closing at 0.03446. Total volume over the 24-hour period amounted to approximately 325,810,000 units, with notional turnover surpassing $120 million during the most volatile hours.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a strong bearish bias with multiple bearish engulfing patterns, especially between 00:45 and 06:15 ET, as price collapsed from 0.03900 to 0.03317. A sharp drop in volume after 04:45 ET suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, though price has yet to stabilize. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are in steep decline, with the 50SMA below the 20SMA, reinforcing a bearish setup.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period moving average (20SMA) is currently below the 50-period moving average (50SMA), forming a bearish death cross on the 15-minute chart. Price remains significantly below both, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are also trending downward, with the 200SMA acting as a key long-term resistance level near 0.0360–0.0370.

The MACD has been bearish for the past 12 hours, with the line and signal line converging below zero and the histogram showing declining bearish momentum after 04:45 ET. RSI has remained in oversold territory below 30 for the last 90 minutes, indicating a potential near-term bottom is forming. However, the lack of a bullish divergence in RSI suggests that price could continue to test lower support levels.

Bollinger Bands have expanded widely during the selloff, with price reaching the lower band multiple times between 00:45 and 04:45 ET. This volatility expansion often precedes a consolidation phase. Price currently sits near the lower band again, with the 20-period standard deviation at its widest in the dataset, suggesting a potential retest of the 0.0344–0.0347 support cluster could follow.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 0.04128 to the low of 0.03317 show that the 61.8% level is at 0.0349, which aligns with the 0.0344–0.0347 support zone. Volume has increased significantly near this level, indicating potential for a short-term bounce or retest of 0.0340–0.0343 as a key next level.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply between 00:45 and 02:30 ET, coinciding with the selloff from 0.03900 to 0.03781. Notional turnover during this period exceeded $120 million, driven by high-volume bearish candles. However, after 04:45 ET, both volume and turnover declined despite continued price weakness, suggesting potential exhaustion among sellers. This divergence may signal a temporary pause in the bearish trend, though a sustained rally remains unlikely without a clear bullish catalyst.

Looking ahead, TSTUSDT could test the 0.0344–0.0347 support zone over the next 24 hours. A break below this level would likely target the 0.0340–0.0343 cluster, with further downside risking a retest of the 0.03317 low. Traders should monitor RSI for a bullish divergence and watch the 20SMA and 50SMA for a potential crossover that could signal a short-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart and remains below the 50SMA for at least three consecutive candles, with a stop-loss placed above the most recent swing high. A trailing stop can be initiated as price continues to decline, with a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach would aim to capture early bearish momentum while managing risk via dynamic stop levels. Initial tests suggest this strategy could capture 70–80% of the downward moves in volatile bear markets like the one observed over the past 24 hours.