Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT)

• Price drifted down from 1.2791 to 1.2528 amid bearish momentum and high volume.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought exhaustion and bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion with price near the lower band.
• Volume surged in the early morning (ET) but declined toward the close.

The 24-hour period for TWTUSDT began at 1.2683 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached an intraday high of 1.2791 before closing at 1.2528 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume stood at 1,213,595 units, while turnover reached $1,526,521, reflecting heightened interest amid mixed price action.

The price drifted lower in a broadly bearish direction after a brief rebound in the early part of the session. Notable bearish patterns include a key engulfing candle around 19:30 ET and a long-legged doji at 06:00 ET, hinting at indecision and exhaustion. Resistance levels appear to congregate near 1.2750–1.2775, while support is forming at 1.2525–1.2550. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is bearish, intersecting price below the 50-period line, and the 200-day MA continues to act as a psychological ceiling.

The MACD histogram has shown a bearish crossover and remains in negative territory, reinforcing the downward bias. RSI is trending below 50 and hovering near oversold territory, though this may reflect a deep correction rather than exhaustion. Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, with price settling near the lower band, suggesting the potential for a mean retest or continuation lower.

Volume spiked early in the session, particularly between 19:30 and 22:00 ET, coinciding with the strongest bearish pressure. However, as price drifted lower, volume and turnover began to decline, raising the possibility of a short-term bottoming process. A divergence between volume and price near the close suggests a pause in the selloff, but a clear reversal signal remains absent.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent 15-minute swing show price currently near the 61.8% level (1.2535), with potential support ahead at the 78.6% (1.2460–1.2480). On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the prior major move sits near 1.2560–1.2580, aligning with recent resistance levels. This confluence may serve as a pivotal area for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential of using candlestick patterns for short-term trading, I attempted to retrieve the daily price data and identify Bearish Engulfing patterns for TWTUSDT. Unfortunately, the data-provider interface returned an error, indicating that the symbol could not be located in the current database. This may be due to missing an exchange prefix (e.g., BINANCE:TWTUSDT), insufficient historical data, or a temporary outage.

To proceed:- A. Confirm the correct exchange/symbol format (e.g., BINANCE:TWTUSDT, KUCOIN:TWT-USDT, etc.).- B. Provide a different symbol or asset (e.g., TWT/USDT on another exchange).- C. Share the Bearish Engulfing pattern dates or upload raw OHLCV data directly.- D. Adjust the date range or pattern definition if needed.

Once the correct data is obtained, I will automatically detect Bearish Engulfing occurrences, implement a 1-day short strategy after each signal, and run a back-test from 2022-01-01 to today. The analysis will include performance metrics such as P&L, hit-rate, max drawdown, and a comparative view versus holding the asset.