Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT)

Summary
• Price formed a bullish rebound off 1.1335 before trending higher in the last 8 hours.
• Volatility expanded during a strong move to 1.1972, with volume spiking in the 15:00–16:45 ET window.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions near the 24-hour high, suggesting a possible correction.

Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at 1.1555 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 1.1972 and a low of 1.1210, closing at 1.1595 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. Total volume amounted to 7,141,701. Total notional turnover was $11,894,612.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear short-term reversal pattern during the 15:00–16:45 ET window, as a strong bullish thrust gave way to a bearish correction. A key support level appears at the 1.15–1.155 zone, with a potential resistance at 1.17–1.175. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.1507–1.1554, indicating a potential short-term recovery.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, suggesting recent momentum has shifted to the upside. However, the 50-period line is trending higher than the 20-period line, indicating that this bullish trend may still be early in its phase. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to act as a dynamic support line.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bearish near the peak at 1.1972, confirming a slowing trend. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 during the 15:00–16:45 ET window, which aligns with the MACD divergence. This suggests a probable pullback is likely in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved from 1.15 to 1.1972, pushing above the upper band by the 15:00 ET window. The move was accompanied by a widening of the bands, suggesting a high-energy phase. Price subsequently retracted toward the mid-band but remains above the 1.15 psychological level, indicating possible stability.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover saw a significant increase during the 15:00–16:45 ET session, with volume reaching 279,470 and turnover peaking at $532,260. This confirms the strength of the bullish move. Conversely, volume declined during the 16:45–17:00 ET window as price dipped, which could indicate waning short-term conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 1.1210–1.1972 swing, 61.8% retracement aligns with the 1.1598–1.1600 level, where price currently rests. This suggests a potential equilibrium point, with further strength likely needing a close above 1.17.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Overbought + 3-day exit” rule was tested using SPY as a proxy and yielded modest positive returns with relatively contained drawdowns. A similar approach, adapted to TWTUSDT’s 15-minute timeframe, might incorporate RSI overbought signals (above 70) with a 3–6 candle exit. However, given TWTUSDT’s lower Sharpe ratio expectations, additional filters—such as volume confirmation or trend alignment with moving averages—could help mitigate false signals. This aligns with the observed behavior in the TWTUSDT chart, where overbought RSI and divergent MACD signaled a pullback.