Market Overview: Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT)

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• TWTUSDT closed below the prior 24-hour low amid bearish momentum and declining volume after a sharp decline.
• The pair traded within a tight range in the final hours with bearish bias, suggesting potential support near 1.155–1.160.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought conditions were absent; RSI in oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours with a strong downward move, while volume spiked during the 06:15 ET–08:30 ET window.

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Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at 1.2715 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.1594 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from 1.2852 (high) to 1.1331 (low). Total volume traded across the 24-hour period was 5,897,505.0, with total notional turnover at 6,949,421.0 (amount × price).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bearish bias over the 24-hour window, with TWTUSDT forming a key bearish engulfing pattern during the 06:15–07:00 ET window as the price dropped from ~1.19 to ~1.17. A series of lower highs and lower lows confirmed a downtrend. A potential support zone emerged near the 1.155–1.160 level after a 15-minute bullish reversal pattern appeared at 09:30–10:00 ET. The 1.27–1.28 range marked a key resistance cluster from earlier in the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a strong downward trend, with price consistently trading below both indicators. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA in the early morning, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was around 1.2700, while the 200-period MA was near 1.2850, indicating a long-term bearish setup with price comfortably below both.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the early morning, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a wide divergence during the 06:15–09:00 ET window as price continued lower while momentum slowed. RSI reached an oversold level of ~30 near 09:15–10:00 ET, hinting at possible short-term buying interest. However, the RSI remained below 50 for most of the session, suggesting bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session, with price moving from the upper to lower band between 06:15–08:15 ET, a sign of a potential trend reversal. After 10:00 ET, volatility contracted and price remained within the bands, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The 15-minute band width showed a clear narrowing in the final 2.5 hours, indicating possible range-bound behavior ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 06:15–08:30 ET window with a significant drop-off in the last 4 hours of the session. Notional turnover matched the volume pattern, peaking at the time of the major price decline. No clear divergence was observed between volume and price, suggesting the bearish move was well-supported by underlying order flow.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing from 1.2852 to 1.1331, the key 61.8% level sits at ~1.1638 and acted as a tentative support area. Price briefly bounced off this level before resuming the decline. The 38.2% retracement at ~1.1875 failed to hold during the morning, confirming bearish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, a short-term 61.8% retracement within the 1.27–1.25 swing pointed to 1.262, which provided minor support in the late hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a short position upon a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the previous candle’s body, with a stop above the high of the pattern and a take-profit at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Over the last 24 hours, this setup was activated twice—most notably during the 06:15–07:00 ET period. A short entered at ~1.195 with a stop above 1.205 and a target at 1.175 would have yielded a 2.1% gain. Given the recurring bearish patterns and strong RSI support levels, this strategy appears to be robust under current market conditions.