Market Overview: Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

• TWTUSDT traded in a tight 1.2255–1.2664 range over 24 hours, closing near 1.2293 with bearish divergence in volume.
• A large bearish candle on 18:45 ET-1 (1.2664 → 1.2395) triggered a trend reversal, confirmed by RSI oversold levels and MACD divergence.
• Volatility spiked midday as Bollinger Bands widened, while Fibonacci levels at 1.250 and 1.232 acted as key resistances and supports.
• Turnover surged during the 18:45 ET-1 selloff, with 382,205 USD traded in one 15-min bar, signaling potential capitulation.
• A bearish Engulfing pattern appeared at 19:15 ET-1, aligning with the backtest hypothesis and suggesting short-term bearish bias.

Price Movement and Candlestick Patterns

Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at 1.2407 on 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 1.2293 on 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 1.2664 and low of 1.2255. Total volume reached 2,449,758.00 and turnover amounted to approximately USD 3,054,521.39. A large bearish candle at 18:45 ET-1 (1.2664 → 1.2395) marked a key reversal in momentum, followed by a series of smaller bearish closes. Multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a doji at 19:15 ET-1 signaled potential exhaustion in the bullish trend.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key resistance levels were identified at 1.250 and 1.261, with 1.250 acting as a strong psychological barrier during consolidation phases. On the downside, support emerged at 1.232 and 1.225, both of which held during the selloff and subsequent consolidation. The 1.232 level appears to be a key area of interest for potential bounces in the near term.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period, signaling a bearish crossover. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA approaching the 200-period MA, a potential bearish signal in the longer term. Momentum indicators reflected a strong bearish bias: MACD showed bearish divergence with price during the afternoon selloff, and RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 for several hours, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility surged after the bearish reversal at 18:45 ET-1, with Bollinger Bands expanding sharply as the price dropped 1.2664 to 1.2395 within one candle. The price closed just above the lower band, indicating a high volatility environment. In the final hours, the bands began to contract slightly, hinting at a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 1.2255–1.2664 swing showed the 61.8% level at 1.250 acting as a strong resistance, which the price failed to break during the final hours. The 38.2% level at 1.241 was a key support during the afternoon rebound, but it ultimately gave way under heavy volume pressure.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the 18:45 ET-1 selloff with a massive 382,205 USD turnover, confirming the bearish reversal. Subsequent volume remained elevated, though not at the same level, indicating ongoing selling pressure. However, the final 6 hours saw a reduction in volume, suggesting a possible short-term exhaustion phase. Price and turnover aligned well during the selloff, but a divergence emerged during the evening rally, with lower turnover supporting a weaker bullish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern identified at 19:15 ET-1 provides a strategic entry point for the “Sell on Bearish Engulfing, hold 3 trading days” strategy. If implemented, the signal would trigger a short position at the next day’s open (19:30 ET). Given the strong volume confirmation and RSI divergence, the pattern is considered high-probability. The exit rule, set at 3 trading days, would close the position by 20:00 ET, capturing potential bearish momentum. This aligns with the broader trend observed in the 24-hour data, where bearish momentum dominated and Fibonacci levels reinforced the bearish bias.