Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• TWT/USDT opened at $1.3786 and dropped to a 24-hour low of $1.2760 before recovering to close at $1.3516.
• Price action shows strong bearish momentum early in the day, followed by a moderate rebound in the afternoon.
• Volume spiked during the sharp downward moves, confirming bearish sentiment but failing to sustain a clear trend.
• RSI entered oversold territory and showed signs of divergence, hinting at potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility increased with expanding Bollinger Bands during the decline, suggesting a period of heightened uncertainty.

The Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) pair opened at $1.3786 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.3516 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $1.4164 and a low of $1.2760 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 5,134,923.00, and notional turnover exceeded market averages in several key price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance level around $1.3700, confirmed by the candlestick at 2025-10-11 19:15 (closing at $1.3441), which was a bearish engulfing pattern. A series of lower highs and lower lows from 19:15 ET to 02:00 ET indicated a strong bearish bias. A potential support area formed between $1.2750 and $1.2850, as price bounced off that range multiple times. A doji appeared at 01:45 ET, suggesting indecision, and a bullish harami formed at 05:30 ET, hinting at a possible near-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were in a bearish crossover by the 2025-10-11 20:00 candle, reinforcing the downward trend. By late morning on 2025-10-12, the 20SMA had begun to turn upward as price approached $1.3500, suggesting early signs of support. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA were in a bearish alignment, indicating the pair remains under broader downward pressure.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained bearish for much of the session, with the histogram showing declining momentum until early 2025-10-12. The RSI dipped below 30 in the early morning, reaching an intraday low of 25.6 at 02:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions. A divergence appeared as RSI failed to make a new low on the 05:15 ET candle despite price hitting $1.2772—suggesting a potential short-term rebound. The RSI has since closed near 48, indicating moderate neutrality.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was at its widest between 19:15 and 02:30 ET, with Bollinger Bands expanding due to the sharp price decline. Price traded near or below the lower band during the bearish phase and then moved back toward the middle band during the rebound. This suggests increasing uncertainty in the market, with price potentially entering a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the downward moves, especially between 19:15 and 22:30 ET, confirming the bearish bias. However, during the afternoon rebound (starting at 04:30 ET), volume declined while price rose—this divergence raises questions about the strength of the reversal. Overall, the notional turnover remained elevated during the key price swings, indicating active participation from market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $1.4164 to $1.2760, the 61.8% level sits at $1.3257 and appears to have acted as a minor support. The 38.2% level at $1.3707 has shown resistance, with price struggling to break above it twice. On a shorter 15-minute swing from $1.4164 to $1.3463, the 50% retracement level is at $1.3814, a potential area to watch for a continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish breakdown and the subsequent consolidation phase, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.3257) with a stop-loss above the 78.6% level ($1.3490) and a take-profit at the 38.2% level ($1.3707). Alternatively, the bullish harami at 05:30 ET and the RSI divergence suggest a long bias if the price retests the $1.2850 area. A long entry could be placed at $1.2830 with a stop at $1.2750 and a target at $1.3020.