Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply from $1.48 to $1.08 amid a massive volume spike before rebounding.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the mid-day sell-off, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• MACD and RSI signaled oversold conditions at the bottom, hinting at potential short-term buying interest.
• Fibonacci levels at $1.28 and $1.39 appear key for near-term direction.
• Turnover surged during the decline, suggesting large institutional participation.

Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at $1.4694 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at $1.3833 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $1.488 and a low of $1.0135. Total volume reached ~35.2 million TWT, while turnover hit ~$48.1 million, reflecting heightened volatility and large order activity.

Structure and formations reveal a sharp bearish reversal around 19:30 ET, with a long red candle closing at a 12.8% drop from its open. This was followed by a strong consolidation phase and a bullish candle on the rebound. A key support level was identified at ~$1.280, where the price bounced multiple times, while a critical resistance area at ~$1.415 has repeatedly failed to hold. A doji candle formed at ~$1.3487 during the rebound, signaling indecision after the sharp decline.

20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover during the sell-off, while daily 50/100/200 EMA lines remained in bearish alignment. On the rebound, price briefly crossed above the 20-period MA, indicating some short-term bullish momentum, though it remains below the 50-period MA, suggesting caution. The 100 and 200-period MAs continue to act as bearish anchors.

MACD turned negative during the sharp drop and remained bearish but showed signs of divergence as RSI entered oversold territory below 25 at ~$1.08. This divergence could signal a potential short-term bounce. RSI has since risen into neutral-to-bullish territory (~48–52), but without a strong breakout above key resistance, a retest of the $1.28 support seems likely. Bollinger Bands were wide during the sell-off and have since contracted slightly, indicating a potential lull in volatility ahead.

Volume surged during the mid-day sell-off, especially in the candle ending at $1.08, with a notional turnover of ~$15.4 million in that 15-minute window. The subsequent rebound was supported by a steady but lower volume, indicating a shift from panic selling to measured accumulation. Notable divergence emerged as price dropped sharply while volume remained relatively steady in the final hours, potentially hinting at exhaustion. Turnover spiked again at $1.3487 and $1.3917, reflecting accumulation by larger participants.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high of $1.488 to the swing low of $1.0135 indicate critical levels at 38.2% (~$1.28) and 61.8% (~$1.41). The 38.2% level has shown strong support, with the price rebounding off it twice in the past 24 hours. A successful close above $1.41 could trigger a test of $1.48, though further momentum is currently lacking. On the 15-minute chart, intraday swings show retracement levels at $1.39 and $1.34, both of which have acted as key support/resistance during the rebound phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the sharp move from $1.48 to $1.08 and the subsequent rebound, a potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying similar sharp sell-offs followed by a 20–30% rebound. The approach would focus on entries at the 38.2% Fib level (~$1.28), with a stop just below $1.25 and a target near $1.39–$1.41. MACD and RSI divergence during the decline could serve as early entry signals, while volume contraction would confirm the waning of bearish momentum. This strategy aligns well with the observed behavior of TWTUSDT and could be backtested on similar altcoin pairs with large liquidity and high volatility.