Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• TWTUSDT surged 28% from $1.59 to $1.6398 amid a bullish breakout.
• Price showed strong momentum with RSI peaking at overbought levels.
• Volume spiked 3.4x at the 15:45 ET candle, confirming the breakout.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating rising volatility.
• A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement coincided with key support at $1.6051.

Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at $1.5956 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at $1.6061 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $1.7239 and a low of $1.5736. The 24-hour total volume was 6.4M, with a notional turnover of ~$10.6M. Price moved sharply higher after a period of consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bullish breakout forming at $1.6251 after a consolidation pattern between $1.59 and $1.62. Key support was identified at $1.6051, coinciding with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which held briefly before the price continued higher. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at $1.6103, and a strong green candle closed near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating increased volatility. A potential bearish reversal signal could form if price retests $1.6314 without breaking above it.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, price broke above the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The daily chart showed a similar pattern with price above the 50- and 100-SMA, with the 200-SMA acting as a strong baseline support. A continuation of this trend may depend on how price interacts with the 200-SMA on the daily chart in the coming 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line with a strong bullish histogram, confirming the recent rally. RSI surged to 75–80, entering overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback. However, as long as RSI stays above 50 and the MACD remains positive, the bullish bias may persist. A break below RSI 50 would signal a shift in momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply as the price moved from the lower band to the upper band within a few hours. The band width expanded from ~0.012 to ~0.063, indicating heightened market uncertainty. The price currently sits near the upper band, with a risk of a reversion to the mean if the trend cannot be maintained.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.2M at 15:45 ET as the price broke above $1.6158, confirming the breakout. However, in the following hours, volume subsided slightly, which could signal a lack of follow-through. The notional turnover increased in tandem with price, aligning with the trend. Divergence between volume and price may become a concern if price rises without higher volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci level at 38.2% ($1.6051) acted as temporary support, while the 61.8% level at $1.6148 was a minor resistance. The price may test the 78.6% retracement at $1.6314 next. On the daily chart, a major Fibonacci level at $1.65 could serve as a near-term resistance if the bullish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong breakout and confirmation by volume and momentum indicators, a backtest strategy could target long positions upon a confirmed close above $1.63 with a stop-loss below $1.6051. The risk-reward ratio appears favorable with a potential target at $1.65. This approach leverages the Fibonacci levels and RSI momentum signals discussed above, aiming to capture a continuation of the trend with tight risk management.