Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-09-24

• TWTUSDT surged 13.9% from 1.2283 to 1.3633 in early ET hours, then consolidated into a 1.36–1.23 range.
• Volatility spiked during the bullish breakout before retreating, with volume surging to 5.1M at the peak.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and a failed test of 1.3633 high suggest potential near-term consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the rally, narrowing during the pullback, signaling possible low volatility.
• A 15-minute doji at 1.305 and 1.236 suggests indecision at key psychological levels.

Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at 1.2283 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 1.4419 before settling at 1.2369 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Total volume was 15.7 million units, with a turnover of approximately $20.4 million, showing strong activity during the bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified around 1.2369 and 1.200, with resistance at 1.2881 and 1.3633. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 10:45 ET as price surged from 1.272 to 1.3633, indicating strong buyer sentiment. A doji at 1.305 on 9:45 ET signaled indecision at mid-range, suggesting possible consolidation. The price also tested the 1.3633 high twice, failing to break out decisively, which may hint at short-term resistance.

Moving Averages and Volatility Indicators

The 15-minute chart showed the 20SMA rising above the 50SMA around 10:45 ET, confirming the bullish trend during the breakout phase. However, the 50SMA failed to cross above the 100/200 SMA on the daily chart, suggesting the move may be corrective rather than a new bullish trend. Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically during the rally to 1.3633, then contracted during the pullback, indicating reduced volatility and potential for consolidation or a reversal.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Levels

RSI moved into overbought territory above 70 during the rally, peaking at 10:45 ET, followed by a bearish divergence as price declined but RSI remained high. MACD showed a bullish crossover during the breakout phase, but the histogram started to contract as price pulled back, suggesting weakening momentum. These signals raise the likelihood of a near-term correction or consolidation within the 1.23–1.28 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.2283–1.3633 swing revealed key retracement levels. The 61.8% level at 1.289 was tested and held around 11:45 ET before price pulled back to the 38.2% level at 1.267, which has now become a potential support zone. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a possible target at 1.194 (61.8% of a larger bearish swing) if the trend turns bearish.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged to 5.1M during the 10:45 ET candle as price broke to 1.3633, confirming the strength of the move. However, subsequent candles showed declining volume despite continued price movement, indicating weakening conviction. Turnover remained elevated during the breakout but dropped during the pullback phase, suggesting reduced participation. The divergence between volume and price suggests a potential shift in momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified Fibonacci levels and divergence in RSI, a potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a confirmed break below 1.2369 with a stop above 1.267. This approach aligns with the bearish divergence and Fibonacci retracement targets. The strategy would also monitor the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart for a bearish crossover, reinforcing the signal. Position sizing should adjust for volatility as measured by Bollinger Band width. This method could be tested on historical 15-minute TWTUSDT data to assess profitability over similar price regimes.