Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• Price surged to 1.23 before correcting, with 1.18–1.20 range showing strong consolidation.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged post-1.20 support, but 1.23–1.25 zone shows early bearish resistance.
• High volume spikes at 1.23–1.25 and 1.19–1.20 suggest key turning points.
• RSI and MACD show overbought conditions at peak, hinting at potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded significantly from midday, pushing prices out of a tight range.

TWTUSDT opened at 1.1755 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and surged to 1.23 before closing at 1.2053 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.23 and hit a low of 1.1604 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 38.8 million, and notional turnover reached approximately 45.2 million (assuming average price of ~1.15).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of bullish reversals forming after the 1.20 support was tested multiple times. A key bullish engulfing pattern developed around 09:15 ET (2025-09-23) when price moved from 1.1984 to 1.2165. This was followed by a 1.21–1.23 consolidation phase, punctuated by a long upper shadow at 13:15 ET (1.259 → 1.2484) that may signal early bearish pressure. A doji formed at 1.2484, indicating indecision, and a bearish harami emerged around 14:30 ET, with price closing at 1.2676 after opening at 1.2912. The 1.16–1.18 zone has acted as a solid support for most of the session, with a notable rejection at 1.1593.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed above the 1.19–1.20 level by late morning, confirming a shift to bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at ~1.185, and the 200-period MA at ~1.175, suggesting the pair is trading above key long-term support levels. However, the 200-period MA has yet to confirm a breakout above the 1.20–1.21 zone, indicating caution for long-term buyers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence between 09:00–11:00 ET, peaking at 0.025 as the pair moved from 1.20 to 1.23. However, a bearish crossover followed at 13:30 ET, coinciding with the 1.2484 doji. The RSI reached 70–72 in the morning, signaling overbought conditions, and fell to 55 by 14:30 ET, hinting at a possible pullback. The indicator is currently at ~60, suggesting moderate bullish momentum with caution still warranted.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 10:00–13:00 ET surge, with price reaching the upper band at 1.23. This expansion suggests rising volatility and a potential reversal. Price has since retraced to near the mid-band, with the lower band currently at 1.195. A close below this level could signal renewed bearish momentum. The contraction in the 05:00–08:00 ET window may have set the stage for the breakout, but it remains to be seen whether the consolidation will continue or break.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 09:15–10:00 ET and 13:15–14:30 ET windows, aligning with key price moves toward 1.21–1.23 and the 1.24–1.26 consolidation. Notional turnover surged to 500k–700k during these periods, indicating strong participation. However, volume dipped during the 14:45–15:15 ET consolidation phase, which may suggest a loss of bullish momentum. Price and volume appear to be in alignment during the initial breakout but show signs of divergence in the 1.24–1.26 zone.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.1593–1.23 swing, key retracement levels sit at 1.203 (61.8%), 1.215 (50%), and 1.221 (38.2%). The 61.8% level was the first major test after the peak and was held until around 14:30 ET. The 1.203–1.205 zone is currently a key battleground, and a break below it may target the 1.19–1.18 support level. On the 15-minute chart, the 1.195–1.205 area has become a critical psychological range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on a breakout-bounce pattern, where long positions are triggered upon a confirmed close above the 1.20–1.21 consolidation range, with a stop just below 1.195. Conversely, short positions are initiated on a close below the 1.20–1.21 zone, with a stop above 1.215. The strategy relies on the confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels, volume confirmation, and RSI divergence as confirmation signals. This approach aligns with the observed price structure and appears to have a high probability of success in the current volatile environment.