Market Overview for TRUMPUSDT: Bullish Momentum Amid Volatility Expansion

• The price of TRUMPUSDT opened at $8.32, reached a high of $8.39, and closed at $8.36 with a low of $8.30.
• A 15-minute breakout pattern formed near $8.35–$8.37, suggesting potential bullish continuation.
• RSI and MACD signaled moderate bullish momentum, but overbought levels remain untested.
• Volatility expanded during late-night hours, with high-volume consolidation forming near key levels.
• Turnover surged to over $330k, confirming price action and reinforcing recent structure.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether USDt (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $8.32 on September 5 at 12:00 ET and closed at $8.36 by the same time on September 6. The price swung between a low of $8.30 and a high of $8.39, with total volume of 497,050.176 units and a notional turnover of approximately $4,113,121. The market exhibited moderate bullish momentum, with a clear attempt to break above the $8.37 resistance zone.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at $8.32–$8.34, reinforced by a series of bullish engulfing and inside bar patterns that stabilized the price during pullbacks. The $8.37–$8.38 range acted as a critical resistance, with a strong bearish reversal candle at $8.39 indicating potential resistance in the short term. A 15-minute doji at $8.37 and a bullish pin bar near $8.35 signaled indecision but also reinforced the idea of consolidation ahead of a potential breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed positively, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA sat below the 100-period and 200-period on the daily chart, suggesting that while the short-term trend is bullish, longer-term momentum remains neutral. Price action remained above the 20-period MA for most of the day, suggesting ongoing buyer interest.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in positive territory for the majority of the 24-hour period, with a histogram that showed increasing bullish momentum in the late evening and early morning hours. The RSI touched 65–70 on multiple occasions, suggesting overbought conditions, but failed to trigger a significant sell-off, indicating strong buying pressure. A potential divergence in RSI near the $8.37–$8.38 range could signal a pause in the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

Price action expanded beyond the upper Bollinger Band during the 03:00–04:00 ET period, confirming a breakout attempt. The bands remained relatively wide, indicating elevated volatility. The closing price of $8.36 sat just below the midline, suggesting that the price is consolidating after the breakout attempt and could either continue higher or retest the $8.34–$8.35 support zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the late-night and early-morning hours, with the most active candle being the 23:30–00:00 ET session, which saw $11,434.145 in volume and $96,483 in turnover. This aligned with the price reaching a high of $8.37 and forming a bullish engulfing pattern. The divergence between price and turnover at the $8.35–$8.36 levels was minimal, indicating that the buying pressure remained strong and consistent.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the $8.30–$8.39 swing showed the $8.34–$8.36 area aligning with 61.8% retracement, while the $8.37–$8.38 zone matched the 38.2% and 50% levels. These levels coincided with the formation of key candlestick patterns and moving average crossovers, suggesting that the 61.8% level is a critical psychological and technical threshold to watch for a potential continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart and the alignment of Fibonacci and moving average levels near $8.36–$8.38, a backtesting strategy could be constructed to validate the continuation of the uptrend. A long entry could be placed at $8.35, with a stop-loss at $8.30 and a profit target at $8.40. This would allow for a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5, while incorporating the RSI overbought threshold and MACD histogram strength as confirmation indicators. If volume remains above 10,000 units during the entry candle, the trade could be considered high-probability based on the current market structure.