Market Overview for TRUMPUSDT (2025-10-03)

• Price surged from $7.62 to $7.85 during the 24-hour period, showing strong upward momentum.
• Volatility increased, with a 23-candle high of $7.85 and a low of $7.62 on 15-min chart.
• Volume spiked above $130k at 19:15 ET, confirming key breakout levels.
• RSI hovered near overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term correction.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed on 19:15 ET candle, signaling possible continuation.

Price Action and Structure

OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.62 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.74 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $7.85 and a low of $7.62. Total volume traded was 487,883.56 units with a turnover of $3.68 million. The price trended upward for most of the 24 hours, with a notable breakout above $7.77 on October 2nd. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:15 ET, suggesting buyers took control after a period of consolidation.

Moving Averages and Key Levels

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bullish bias. The 50-period line hovered around $7.73 to $7.74, acting as dynamic support. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near $7.74, aligning with the 20-period and suggesting a continuation of upward momentum. Key support levels include $7.71 and $7.66, while resistance is expected at $7.82 and $7.86. A break above $7.86 could signal a new bullish phase.

MACD, RSI, and Volatility

The MACD (12,26,9) showed positive divergence during the late hours of October 2nd, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI climbed to overbought territory (70+), particularly after the $7.81 level was reached, indicating potential pullback. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate widening, with the price staying within the upper band for much of the day. A retest of the upper band could lead to further volatility.

Volume and Turnover Patterns

Volume surged significantly during the key breakout at 19:15 ET, with a 15-minute candle volume of 76,818 units—among the highest of the day. This confirmed the breakout rather than a false move. However, turnover dipped slightly after 00:15 ET, suggesting potential profit-taking or reduced participation. A divergence between rising price and falling volume in the morning hours may indicate some near-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour swing (from $7.62 to $7.85), the 38.2% level is at $7.76 and the 61.8% level is at $7.79. Price has tested both levels, with the 61.8% acting as a minor resistance. A break above $7.85 could trigger a move to $7.89–$7.91. Conversely, a drop below $7.73 could lead to a test of the 38.2% retracement at $7.76, with further support at $7.71 and $7.66.

Forward Outlook and Risks

Price appears to be in a strong bullish phase, supported by momentum and volume. A retest of $7.85 is likely, with potential for further upside. However, overbought RSI and volume divergence suggest caution. A pullback to $7.73 or below could trigger short-term bearish pressure, especially if volume increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish trend and confirmed breakout with high volume, a backtesting strategy might involve a long entry at the close of the 19:15 ET candle ($7.78) with a stop-loss placed below the 19:00 ET open of $7.75. A take-profit could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($7.79) and extended to $7.82 if the 61.8% is surpassed with confirmation on the next candle. The MACD and RSI overbought levels may also act as dynamic triggers for exits or profit-taking.