Market Overview: TRUMPJPY - 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-28)

• TRUMPJPY surged to 1197, then declined sharply to 1062.
• Strong bullish momentum early, followed by bearish reversal patterns.
• High-volume 15-minute candles confirmed key resistance and breakdown.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought/oversold extremes and divergences.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, then contracted into a range near closing.

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-10-28, the OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1005. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 1236 and a low of 1050, closing at 1062 at 12:00 ET. The total volume traded was 1527.57 TRUMP, and the notional turnover was 1,620,139.6 JPY. The session saw a volatile push higher followed by a strong reversal, indicating a shift in market sentiment and control.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart displayed a strong bullish impulse early in the session, with a powerful 1149–1197 range and a 1236 intraday high. A bearish reversal pattern developed following this, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle at 19:45, closing at 1149 after a high of 1236. A sequence of small-bodied candles from 03:00 to 04:00 ET suggested indecision. Key support levels emerged at 1089 and 1062, while 1152 and 1191 acted as resistance before the decline.

Moving Averages

Over the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bullish early, but as the session progressed, they flattened and then turned bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA would have acted as a significant psychological and potential support level. The 200-period MA likely remained lower, indicating a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish during the upward phase, forming a strong positive divergence as price made higher highs while the histogram expanded. However, a bearish crossover and a negative divergence emerged during the downward correction, signaling a weakening in bullish momentum. RSI spiked above 75 during the rally, indicating overbought conditions, followed by a sharp decline to 40, suggesting oversold territory as the price dropped to 1062. This suggests the market may be entering a consolidation or reversal phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the upward phase, with price pushing above the upper Bollinger Band at 1197. The bands contracted during the late-night consolidation, and price found itself near the lower band by the close, indicating potential exhaustion of the downward move. A potential bounce off the lower band may be under consideration for short-term traders.

Volume & Turnover

The most notable volume spikes occurred during the 17:00–19:00 ET window, where trading activity intensified as price moved from 1133 to 1236. A total volume of 191.99 TRUMP in the 17:00 candle confirmed strength in the move. However, as price declined past 1152, volume also increased, confirming the bearish reversal. A volume spike at 03:00 ET (15.63 TRUMP) during the consolidation phase suggests potential accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 1149–1236 move, the 61.8% retracement level came in at approximately 1183, where price briefly stalled. The 100% extension level would be around 1062, which became a critical support level. A 61.8% retracement of the 1236–1062 decline is at 1149, coinciding with a prior resistance level and suggesting a potential pivot point for a near-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence in MACD and the RSI overbought reading early in the session, a potential backtesting strategy might focus on shorting the asset upon confirmation of a bearish crossover in the MACD and a closing below the 50-period MA. A sell signal could be triggered when both technical indicators align with a confirmed price breakdown. A stop-loss could be placed at the most recent support level (e.g., 1087), while a take-profit could be targeted at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the rally. This strategy would need to be tested across historical data to evaluate its robustness and risk-reward profile.