Market Overview: TRUMPJPY 24-Hour Movement and Volatility Shifts

Summary
• Price surged to $1218 before retracting sharply, hitting a 24-hour low of $1152.
• Volatility spiked post-18:00 ET with a 30-minute 23-point swing.
• Turnover surged during bearish breakouts, suggesting increased selling pressure.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07, the OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at $1196 and reached a high of $1218 while dipping to a low of $1152 before closing at $1160. The 24-hour session saw total volume of 16,763.09 and a notional turnover of $19,448,434.70.

The candlestick pattern over the past day reveals a volatile and mixed sentiment. A strong bullish breakout from a consolidation phase early in the session failed to hold, leading to a sharp retracement in the latter half. Key support was identified around the $1160–1162 level, as the price stabilized there for multiple hours, with a bearish pinocchio candle appearing at the top of the breakout. Resistance levels at $1190–1200 were tested multiple times, showing strength but failing to hold for more than 90 minutes at a time. A bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged at $1190–1203 around 19:00–19:30 ET, but it was quickly invalidated by a bearish reversal.

Volume and turnover spiked during the bearish leg of the move, particularly after 18:45 ET, as the price dropped from $1215 to $1162 within a 2.5-hour window. This suggests increased selling pressure, potentially from traders taking profits after a short-term rally. A divergence between price and turnover was observed as the price hit new 24-hour lows, with volume moderating after $1165, indicating a potential short-term bottoming process.

Bollinger Bands reflected a sharp volatility expansion starting at 18:00 ET, with prices trading outside the upper band during the bullish push and then rapidly moving into the lower band during the retracement. RSI dropped to near 25 during the bearish leg, signaling oversold territory, though no strong reversal was triggered. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the final hours, suggesting bearish momentum is gaining strength.

The MACD showed a bearish crossover late in the session, with the histogram shrinking during the price stabilization phase. This indicates that while short-term momentum is declining, the overall bias remains bearish. Fibonacci retracements from the $1152 low to the $1218 high suggest key levels at $1181 (38.2%) and $1166 (61.8%) may be critical for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest strategy relies on RSI-14 to identify potential entry and exit points. By entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 (oversold conditions) and exiting when it rises above 30, the strategy attempts to capture short-term reversals. Given today’s action, RSI briefly entered oversold territory at 1162 but failed to confirm a strong bounce, which may suggest the strategy might have produced a false signal in this context. A successful backtest would require more consistent RSI-14 overbought/oversold behavior, which appeared to be lacking over the last 24 hours.