Market Overview: TRUMPJPY — A 24-Hour Bearish Consolidation with Oversold Conditions

• TRUMPJPY opened at 937.0 and closed at 882.0, forming a bearish 24-hour range.
• Momentum remains bearish with RSI in oversold territory, suggesting potential reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction in afternoon ET, hinting at consolidation.
• Volume was uneven, with spikes in early ET and quiet sessions overnight.
• Key support at 882.0 and 878.0, resistance at 884.0 and 889.0.

Market Summary and Price Action

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 937.0 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 882.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. The 24-hour range was between 937.0 and 916.0. Total volume across the 24 hours was approximately 2,292.50, and the notional turnover (volume × average price) was roughly 2,087,065 Yen, based on mid-range estimates.

The price action was characterized by a broad sell-off from the opening, with a strong bearish bias evident in the early 15-minute candles. A 15-minute engulfing candle at the open (937.0 → 916.0) signaled bearish momentum. The price found support near 916.0 multiple times, forming a potential short-term floor. By the evening, the market entered a consolidation phase, with a series of doji and very low-volume candles.

Technical Structure and Indicators

Support levels emerged at 882.0 and 878.0, both of which were briefly tested and held, while resistance was noted at 884.0 and 889.0. A bullish engulfing pattern occurred at 04:30 ET (895.0 → 896.0), briefly suggesting a counter-trend push, but the momentum dissipated.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a bearish crossover, confirming the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period lines were not available for full calculation, but the trend over the past 24 hours leaned bearish.

MACD showed a negative crossover in the early hours of 2025-10-22, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory around 15:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. Bollinger Bands displayed a tight contraction in the midday session, pointing to a period of consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 15-minute swing from 937.0 to 916.0 placed key levels at 927.3 (38.2%), 923.2 (50%), and 919.3 (61.8%). The price tested the 61.8% level twice but failed to hold above it.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume activity was concentrated in the early part of the day, particularly in the 15-minute candles from 16:00 to 18:00 ET, where large volume spikes (up to 1,000 contracts) coincided with sharp price declines. Overnight, volume dropped off significantly, with several zero-volume candles indicating a lack of interest.

Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with the majority of trading activity occurring in the first few hours of the session. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the late-night to early morning hours: while price continued to decline, volume remained muted. This could signal a weakening of the bearish thesis and a potential reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish MACD crossover observed in the early part of the 24-hour period, a backtest using the MACD Death Cross (typically using parameters of 12, 26, and 9) could be implemented to evaluate its predictive power on TRUMPJPY. Confirming this would require aligning the backtest period (1 Jan 2022 – 22 Oct 2025) and ensuring the data series is consistent with the current dataset. Once confirmed, the backtest could reveal whether a short-bias strategy based on the Death Cross would have been profitable in this market context.