Market Overview: TRUMPJPY on 2025-10-25

• Price surged to 914.0 after breaking above 911.0 resistance late in the day.
• Low volume confirmed consolidation before breakout, suggesting limited selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD showed early bullish momentum, aligning with the late-day rally.
• Volatility remained constrained until 19:30 ET, with a sharp upward move confirming a reversal pattern.
• Bollinger Bands constricted until the breakout, suggesting a potential continuation in favor of buyers.

TRUMPJPY 24-Hour Market Overview

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 896.0 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 914.0 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of 914.0 and a low of 896.0, with total volume of 20.8911 and a notional turnover of 19,076.706 Yen over the 24-hour window. The market demonstrated a late-day bullish breakout after hours of consolidation.

Structure & Formations

A key resistance level at 911.0 was broken decisively after a period of sideways movement. The formation of a bullish breakout pattern, marked by a long lower shadow and a close near the session high, indicates strong buying pressure. A series of doji candles preceding the breakout suggests indecision, with buyers eventually taking control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned near the 900–904 range, indicating a neutral to bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be a minor support, while the 200-period line is distant, reflecting a strong short-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line late in the day, confirming the bullish reversal. RSI moved into overbought territory near 70, aligning with the breakout. Momentum appears to be building, suggesting that the price may continue upward in the short term, although a pullback to retest 911.0 cannot be ruled out.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the breakout, signaling low volatility. The price surged above the upper band after 19:30 ET, confirming a strong breakout. This expansion in volatility suggests a continuation in the current direction is likely, although a retest of the lower band near 906.0 may provide a potential entry for longs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained muted until a sharp increase at 19:30 ET, with a surge of 7.9427 volume at 906.0. Turnover also spiked at that time, confirming the breakout. The divergence between low volume and high turnover earlier in the session suggests accumulation, with the large volume spike acting as confirmation of a breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 911.0 level corresponds to a 78.6% retracement of the earlier 896.0–906.0 move. The break above 911.0 aligns with a 100% extension target toward 914.0. On the daily chart, the 914.0 close aligns with the 38.2% retracement level from a larger swing, suggesting the move may not yet be exhausted.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the late-day breakout and alignment with Fibonacci and Bollinger Band signals, the price action aligns well with a breakout-based strategy. A backtest using a resistance-breakout logic—where a trade is triggered on a close above a previous swing high (e.g., 911.0) and exited on a close 5% below the entry level or a new resistance—would likely capture this move. Using a 20-period lookback for resistance identification and daily close as the entry trigger, the strategy could have entered at 911.0 and exited at a stop or near 914.0.