Market Overview: Trump/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – Dec 22, 2025

Summary
• Price surged to a 24-hour peak of $5.093, followed by a sharp retracement to $4.971.
• Volume spiked 5x above average during the midday sell-off, signaling significant short-term pressure.
• RSI hit oversold territory at ~30, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak, reinforcing the likelihood of further consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply as volatility surged, with prices closing near the lower band.

Market Overview

OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $5.008 on 12/21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $5.093, and closed at $5.006 at 12:00 ET on 12/22. Total 24-hour volume was 969,406.455, and turnover was $4,912,543. The market experienced a sharp intra-day reversal and heavy selling pressure toward the midday session.

Structure and Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 5-minute level near $5.093, suggesting a shift in momentum to the downside. Key support levels appear at $5.05–$5.03, with a critical test near $4.971, where the price briefly touched. A bullish doji formed near $5.00, signaling potential short-term stabilization.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart both turned bearish as the price broke below key support levels. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart remains above the 200-period, indicating a broader bullish bias. MACD diverged from price near the peak, with negative momentum gaining strength. RSI reached 30 at the close, suggesting oversold conditions and a potential for a minor rebound.

Volatility and Volume

Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically as volatility surged, with the price dropping to the lower band during the midday sell-off. The most significant volume spike occurred during the 11:15–11:30 ET sell-off, where turnover increased sharply despite a modest price decline. Volume and price aligned during this move, reinforcing the strength of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 5-minute swing from $5.093 to $4.971 aligns with key Fibonacci levels, with the current close near the 61.8% retracement at $5.019. A close below $4.971 would test the 78.6% level, potentially opening the door to further downside. On the daily chart, the pair appears near the 38.2% retracement of the previous weekly leg up, suggesting a possible near-term floor.

Outlook

The sharp reversal and bearish pattern suggest further consolidation or a potential test of key support near $4.95 could be in the cards. However, RSI’s oversold reading could prompt a short-term bounce. Investors should closely watch volume and whether the price holds above $4.971; a break below could trigger more aggressive selling.