Market Overview for TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) – October 12, 2025

• TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) ended lower at 0.02 on 2025-10-12, down from the 12:00 ET-1 open of 0.0191.
• Price swung between 0.0185 and 0.02 with a final close near the 61.8% retracement level of the prior swing.
• Volume surged near the close, indicating renewed interest or potential accumulation.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions forming, though price remains below the 20-period MA.
• Volatility expanded through the day, with Bollinger Bands showing a widening trend toward the end.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-10-11, TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at 0.0191 and reached an intraday high of 0.02 before settling at 0.02 by the final 15-minute candle of the 24-hour window. The price traded as low as 0.0185, reflecting a volatile session. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 42.1 million, with a notional turnover of approximately 796,673. The price action shows a strong late-day rally, suggesting increased buying pressure as the market approached the close.

The TRUUSDT pair exhibited a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern in the final hours, with the 15-minute candles forming small bullish bodies after a period of consolidation. A notable breakout above the 0.0193 resistance level occurred around 15:00 ET, confirming a potential short-term bullish trend. Support levels at 0.0187 and 0.0185 held multiple times throughout the day, acting as psychological floors that prevented a deeper pullback.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart was at 0.0191 as of the close, slightly above the 50-period MA of 0.0189, indicating a potential upward shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 0.0192, with the 200-day MA at 0.0186, suggesting the pair is currently trading near its mid-term trend. The price remains above the 200 MA, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD (12, 26, 9) crossed into positive territory near the close, with a bullish histogram suggesting building momentum. RSI(14) climbed above 60, reaching 64, indicating overbought territory. However, the overbought condition is not extreme, and the reading remains within a reasonable trading range. Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the last four hours, with the price testing the upper band at 0.02. This suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead as volatility unwinds.

The late-day volume spike correlates with the price move above 0.0193, confirming the breakout. Notional turnover also increased in the last two hours, reaching $250,000 at the 12:00 ET close. A divergence between volume and price appears in the morning session, with volume declining despite a sideways price range, suggesting waning interest before the late rally.

Fibonacci retracements based on the 0.0185–0.02 swing indicate that the 0.0191 level (38.2%) was a key area of consolidation. The 61.8% retracement at 0.0195 was tested twice, with the final close near this level at 0.02. A successful close above 0.0195 could signal further upward momentum in the short term.

The backtest hypothesis for TRUUSDT involves a short-term breakout strategy based on the 20-period MA and RSI overbought signals. The strategy would trigger a long position when the price closes above the 20-period MA and RSI crosses above 60. A stop-loss is placed at the previous swing low, and the target is set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. In the context of today's price action, such a strategy would have entered at 0.0192, with a stop-loss at 0.0188 and a target near 0.02. This setup aligns with the observed 15-minute bullish pattern and supports the idea of a short-term continuation in price.