Market Overview for TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) - 2025-09-25

• TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) declined by 5.83% in 24 hours, closing near a key support level at 0.0275.
• Strong volume expansion occurred during the downward leg, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce could emerge.
• Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility in the last 24 hours.
• A potential reversal setup is forming near 0.0275–0.0280, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed earlier.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at 0.0294 (12:00 ET - 1), peaked at 0.0299, and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.0275 before closing at 0.0282 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume reached 9,993,010.0, and turnover amounted to approximately 288,551.05 USD. The pair has shown bearish dominance with consistent pressure below key resistance levels and weak recovery attempts.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart indicates a bearish bias with multiple bearish engulfing patterns forming near key levels. A significant support level is observed at 0.0275, which was tested twice and held, suggesting potential as a short-term floor. Resistance remains at 0.0293–0.0295, where price has previously failed to maintain. A doji formed near 0.0280 during the early afternoon, indicating indecision and possible exhaustion of the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are both bearish, with the 20 SMA crossing below the 50 SMA (death cross). On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs all align in a bearish trend, with the price firmly below all three. This reinforces the downward momentum and suggests bearish continuation is likely in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned bearish, with both the MACD line and signal line trending lower. The RSI has fallen below 30, entering oversold territory, suggesting that a short-term bounce may occur, though this is not confirmation of a reversal. Divergence between RSI and price action is minimal, indicating that bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the past 24 hours, indicating increased volatility and strong price swings. The price has recently found support near the lower band at 0.0275 and 0.0280, suggesting a possible bounce off these levels. The middle band remains at 0.0287–0.0288, which may act as a dynamic resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early part of the downward leg, particularly between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. Notional turnover increased during this period as well, showing strong conviction in the sell-off. However, volume during the most recent rebound has been relatively weak, suggesting limited buying interest at current levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from 0.0299 to 0.0275 is being retraced. The 38.2% level is at 0.0287 and the 61.8% level is at 0.0282, where the price is currently consolidating. On the daily chart, the major swing from recent highs to recent lows aligns with the 61.8% retracement level at 0.0280–0.0285, indicating potential for consolidation or a test of 0.0275 again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 15-minute RSI falls below 30 and the price closes below the 20-period SMA. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance (0.0293–0.0295), with a target at the next Fibonacci level of 0.0275. This setup could be tested using historical data from the last three months.