Market Overview for TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) — 2025-09-21

• Price declined from 0.0325 to 0.0312, with key resistance at 0.0323–0.0325 and support at 0.0312–0.0314.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential bounce, but volume remains moderate.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, pushing TRUUSDT outside the lower Bollinger Band, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
• A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.0324, reinforcing downward pressure.
• Turnover surged after 07:00 ET with a massive 5 million-volume candle, signaling a bearish shift.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at 0.0324 (12:00 ET − 1), peaked at 0.0325, and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.0310 before closing at 0.0312 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 21.9 million, with turnover at $696,656. The pair experienced a clear bearish shift driven by key breakdowns and declining momentum.

Structure & Formations

TRUUSDT encountered multiple short-term resistance levels between 0.0323 and 0.0325, which failed to hold through heavy selling pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the early part of the 24-hour window, confirming the reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. Additionally, a long lower wick in the candle at 07:00 ET indicated a failed bounce attempt. The price appears to be consolidating near key support at 0.0312, with a potential for a retracement or a further test of 0.0310 if momentum continues to the downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below key price levels, indicating bearish momentum. For the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are aligned in a bearish formation, reinforcing the downtrend. Price action suggests TRUUSDT could test these averages again as potential dynamic support levels, particularly if volume increases on a short-term rebound.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative and is showing bearish divergence, with the histogram contracting during the late ET hours. RSI has reached oversold territory (below 30), which may signal a near-term bounce. However, this overbought/oversold reading must be confirmed with strong volume. If RSI fails to reverse above 30 amid thin volume, the downtrend is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-day as the price moved outside the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a sharp decline in optimism. This expansion is typically followed by a contraction, which may provide an entry point for short-term traders. The current positioning near the lower band suggests the market is overextended to the downside, but without a clear reversal pattern, a retracement could be short-lived.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 07:00 ET with a massive 5 million-volume candle, which coincided with a sharp drop in price. This suggests increased bearish participation and conviction. Notional turnover also rose sharply during this period, indicating that the move was not isolated to low-cap retail trading. However, after this spike, volume subsided, suggesting that the immediate bearish impulse may have run its course.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0325 to 0.0310, key levels to watch include 38.2% at 0.0320 and 61.8% at 0.0314. On the daily chart, 0.0320 appears as a major psychological level for retracement. If price fails to hold above 0.0314, the 61.8% level becomes the next critical support. A break below 0.0314 could signal a larger move toward 0.0310.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for TRUUSDT involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss is placed above the high of the engulfing pattern, and take-profit targets are set at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish momentum, volume spikes, and key technical breakdown levels. A trailing stop can be added to lock in gains as the price moves downward.