Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) – September 23, 2025

• TRXJPY declined 1.79% over 24 hours amid sustained selling pressure and bearish momentum.
• Price broke key Fibonacci levels and found support at 49.60–49.80, with bearish continuation signs.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought exhaustion earlier, but failed to confirm a reversal.
• High volume consolidation at 49.60–49.65 suggests potential near-term support or retesting of lower levels.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the final hours, hinting at possible volatility expansion ahead.

The TRON/Yen pair (TRXJPY) opened at 50.51 on September 22 at 16:00 ET and closed at 49.82 at 12:00 ET on September 23, reaching a high of 50.72 and a low of 49.60. Total traded volume over 24 hours was 159,277.61 TRX, with a notional turnover of approximately 7,835,581 JPY. The 15-minute chart reveals a consistent downtrend with bearish engulfing patterns and multiple breakdowns of prior support levels.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart suggest a strong bearish bias. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 50.40–50.35, confirming a shift in momentum. The price has since tested and failed to close above key psychological levels at 50.40 and 50.50. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high (50.72) to the low (49.60) resides at 49.90, which has served as a critical support threshold.

The MACD line dipped below the signal line around 01:00 ET on September 23, confirming a bearish crossover. RSI approached oversold territory in the final hours, signaling potential exhaustion of the downward move. However, RSI remains within bearish territory, indicating the move may not yet be complete. Bollinger Bands have seen a sharp contraction in the last 1–2 hours, suggesting an impending volatility expansion—either a continuation or a potential reversal. Price currently sits near the lower band at 49.65, a strong indicator of bearish momentum.

Volume spiked significantly during the decline from 50.40 to 49.60, particularly between 10:00 ET and 12:00 ET. The notional turnover of ~7,835,581 JPY in that period highlights the depth of bearish conviction. The divergence between price and volume suggests traders may be preparing for a short-term consolidation or a potential bounce near the 49.60–49.80 range. A break below 49.60 could target 49.40, though the recent consolidation at 49.65 offers a potential near-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy involves entering short positions on TRXJPY when a bearish engulfing pattern forms at or near key Fibonacci retracement levels, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and a closing price below the 20-period moving average. Stop-loss is placed above the most recent swing high, and take-profit targets are set at 61.8% and 100% retracement levels of the prior swing. Given the recent consolidation near 49.65 and the bearish engulfing pattern at 50.40–50.35, the strategy could have triggered a short signal around 09:15 ET on September 23. This aligns with the observed price action and momentum indicators, suggesting a plausible setup for a short-term bearish trade.