Market Overview: TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) — October 29, 2025

• TRXJPY declined from 45.62 to 44.93 over 24 hours, ending near key support.
• Price tested 44.87–44.93 multiple times, forming a consolidation pattern.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but lack of follow-through suggests caution.
• Volume spiked during 20:15–21:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with Bollinger Bands widening after a contraction.

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 45.50 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 45.62 before closing at 44.93 at 12:00 ET on October 29. The 24-hour range was 44.79–45.62. Total volume traded was 240,364.21 TRX, with a notional turnover of ¥10,697,178.65. Price action suggests a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum around 44.93–44.87.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart features multiple attempts to break above the 45.35–45.62 range, with 45.62 acting as a resistance zone. A long bearish candle at 19:45 ET (44.58–45.58 to 44.39–45.35) suggests a strong rejection of higher levels. A potential support zone formed at 44.87–44.93 after a series of tight-range consolidation candles. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared briefly at 04:15–04:45 ET as price rose from 45.12 to 45.23, but it failed to hold. Doji appeared at key turning points, such as 08:45 and 10:30 ET, signaling indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price briefly crossed above the 20 SMA mid-session but quickly reverted. The 50 SMA remains bearish, acting as a ceiling in the 45.25–45.40 range. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA is at 45.20, and the 200 SMA is at 44.90, suggesting a potential confluence zone near 44.90. A cross above 45.45 may signal a short-term reversal, but bearish momentum remains intact as of the 24-hour close.

MACD & RSI

The RSI moved into oversold territory (<30) around 20:15–21:30 ET, aligning with a sharp drop from 45.26 to 44.75. However, the failure to rebound decisively suggests a bearish bias. The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the line below the signal line since 18:00 ET. Momentum appears to be waning, and a sustained close above 45.35 would be needed to reverse the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the late evening session after a brief contraction during the afternoon. Price moved close to the lower band during the 20:15–21:00 ET period, signaling extreme bearish pressure. A bounce from the lower band around 44.89–44.93 suggests a potential short-term rebound could be in play, but without a clear break above the 45.35–45.40 level, a new bearish move is likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 20:15–21:00 ET period, coinciding with a sharp drop from 45.26 to 44.75. This large volume move without a corresponding price rebound suggests bearish exhaustion is setting in. Turnover also peaked during the same period, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, a lack of follow-through during the 02:00–04:00 ET rebound suggests buyers are hesitant to commit above 45.20.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 44.79 low to the 45.62 high show key retracement levels at 45.35 (38.2%) and 45.20 (61.8%). Price has bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting strong bearish resistance in this area. A break above 45.45 would bring the 78.6% level into play at ~45.74, but this seems unlikely in the near term without a stronger bullish signal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could be constructed based on the RSI indicator observed in the analysis, where RSI dipped below 30 during the 20:15–21:00 ET period. A simple strategy would involve entering a long position when RSI < 30 and exiting after one day. However, given the recent bearish trend and lack of follow-through in price recovery, such a strategy may not perform well in isolation. A combination of RSI and volume confirmation (e.g., a spike in volume with a rising close) would improve the signal-to-noise ratio. If the TRXJPY ticker is accessible via a known data source (e.g., a specific exchange), we could test this strategy using historical RSI data from 1 January 2022 to the current date. Confirming the exact ticker would enable precise implementation and evaluation.