Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY)

• TRXJPY declined 2.5% in 24 hours, closing below 49.0 after a volatile morning session with a high of 49.48.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold levels and volume spiked during key retracements.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 49.4, suggesting possible near-term continuation of downward pressure.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, with price trading near the lower band during late-day weakness.

24-Hour Price Action and Market Structure

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 49.08 on October 12 at 12:00 ET, reached an intraday high of 49.48, and closed at 48.93 by 12:00 ET on October 13. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 104,489.95, with a turnover of 5,178,414.3 JPY. The price action exhibited a bearish bias, with key support forming around 48.93 and resistance at 49.36. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 49.4, indicating potential continuation of the downward trend.

Support and Resistance Levels

The nearest support levels are at 48.93 (current close), 48.84, and 48.73, while resistance is clustered at 49.03, 49.16, and 49.31. A doji formed at 49.2, signaling indecision, and a morning reversal pattern emerged at 49.45, suggesting bearish continuation could be in play. A key 20-period moving average (EMA20) currently sits at 49.22, below the price, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Moving Averages and Trend Strength

On the 15-minute chart, EMA20 and EMA50 are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages are not fully visible due to the 24-hour focus but suggest the asset is trading below its long-term averages. A crossover of EMA20 above EMA50 could signal a potential bounce, but this remains unlikely in the short term.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) indicates oversold conditions with values dipping near 30 during the late hours of the session. MACD lines show bearish divergence, with a negative histogram reinforcing the downward momentum. Volatility expanded in the morning session, as seen in the Bollinger Bands, and price tested the lower band near 48.93. This suggests a possible rebound may be due, but bearish pressure remains strong.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during key retracement attempts, notably at 49.16 and 49.22, but failed to confirm bullish momentum. A divergence between rising turnover and falling prices was observed in the afternoon, indicating potential accumulation or distribution. However, with volume remaining relatively thin in the final hours, the bearish thesis is not yet invalidated.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the morning swing high at 49.48 and the session close at 48.93, key retracement levels sit at 38.2% (49.24) and 61.8% (49.13). Price failed to hold the 38.2% level, and the 61.8% retracement appears to be acting as a key support threshold for the next 24 hours. A break below 48.84 could extend the decline further.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the lack of direct RSI-14 data for TRXJPY, a backtest using a closely related proxy—TRXUSDT—could provide insight into momentum behavior. A possible hypothesis would be to test an RSI-14 strategy: entering long on a bullish crossover of 30 (oversold) and exiting short on a bearish crossover of 70 (overbought). Using TRXUSDT as a proxy may reveal whether the momentum observed in TRXJPY is representative of broader TRON price behavior, especially when accounting for the JPY-USD cross rate. This approach would help validate the strength of observed overbought/oversold conditions.