Market Overview: TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) on 2025-09-24

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• TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) rose 4.4% over the last 24 hours, closing at ¥50.20 after testing ¥49.67 support.
• Momentum showed mixed signals, with RSI near overbought and MACD trending higher with a positive histogram.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the final 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price near the upper band.
• Volume surged in the last 12 hours, especially after ¥50.20 was cleared, with notional turnover increasing 4.5x.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥49.67–50.15, followed by a breakout above ¥50.20 and consolidation in a tight range.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24, TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at ¥49.70, reached a high of ¥50.54, and closed at ¥50.20, with a low of ¥49.67. The 24-hour notional volume was 147,444.27 TRX, and total turnover amounted to ¥7,423,556.64. Price action was characterized by a sharp breakout above ¥50.20 and a subsequent consolidation phase, with the market showing clear signs of renewed bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a critical support level at ¥49.67 before forming a bullish engulfing pattern. This pattern was followed by a strong upward thrust, breaking through ¥50.20 with confirmation via a 15-minute bullish candle. The price then entered a consolidation phase, forming a tight range above ¥50.20, suggesting the market is digesting the recent move. A potential double-bottom formation is emerging in the ¥49.64–¥49.76 range, with the neckline at ¥49.83.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been converging, with price consistently above both and showing signs of a potential crossover. The 50-period MA is currently at ¥49.95, while the 20-period MA is at ¥50.10. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs are diverging, with the 50-period at ¥49.70 and the 200-period at ¥49.55, indicating a possible long-term bullish setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12, 26, 9) has been trending upward, with a positive histogram and a recent bullish crossover above the zero line, suggesting strong momentum. RSI has moved into overbought territory at 68, but it has not yet shown signs of a bearish divergence. The RSI's recent bounce from the 50-level suggests internal strength and potential for further gains, provided volume supports the move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown a clear expansion in volatility, especially in the last 6 hours of the 24-hour window. The price has spent much of the period near the upper band, indicating a strong bullish bias. A contraction was observed earlier in the session around ¥49.80, suggesting a period of consolidation before the breakout. The recent wide band setup indicates a higher probability of a continuation of the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the final 12 hours, with the largest volume block occurring during the ¥50.20–50.54 rally. The notional turnover increased by over 4.5x compared to the morning hours, confirming the price move. No divergence was observed between price and volume in the last 6 hours, suggesting the breakout is well-supported. The volume profile is skewed to the right, indicating stronger buying pressure in the latter half of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels have been tested during the session. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level at ¥50.09 provided a strong pivot point before the breakout. The daily chart shows the 50% retracement at ¥49.79 and the 61.8% level at ¥49.91 acting as support during the consolidation phase. A potential target from the ¥49.67–50.20 swing is ¥50.57, aligning with the 127.2% extension level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy for TRXJPY involves a breakout confirmation system using Bollinger Band and RSI levels. The strategy would enter a long position when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI crosses above 50, while exiting when RSI dips below 50 or volume shows signs of divergence. Given the current conditions, the strategy would have entered a long position at ¥50.20 with a stop-loss just below ¥49.90 and a target at ¥50.57. This setup aligns well with recent price action and could serve as a low-risk high-reward trade for the next 48 hours.