Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) on 2025-09-10

• TRXJPY surged to 50.09 before consolidating near 49.95, with a 24-hour high of 50.09 and low of 49.31.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged between 08:00 and 13:15 ET, marked by a 15-minute 100% volume spike of 74,360.49 JPY.
• RSI peaked near overbought (69.4) early morning but softened, suggesting potential for consolidation or pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened dramatically during the rally, indicating heightened volatility and potential mean reversion.
• Volume profile shows a clear imbalance between buying and selling in the 49.70–50.05 range, hinting at key support/resistance levels.

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 49.47 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded as high as 50.09 during the 24-hour period, reaching a low of 49.31 before closing at 49.96 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 180,781.16 JPY, with a notional turnover of approximately 9,039,058 JPY, reflecting moderate to high trading activity and price volatility.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure of TRXJPY suggests a strong bearish reversal pattern early in the session, as seen in the 16:00 ET 15-minute candle, which formed a bearish engulfing pattern. However, this was quickly negated by a bullish rally beginning at 08:00 ET, marked by a sharp 15-minute rise from 49.76 to 49.84. This formed a bullish continuation pattern with a clear breakout above the previous consolidation range.

Between 08:00 and 13:15 ET, the price formed a strong ascending wedge pattern on the 15-minute chart, indicating rising bullish momentum and a potential breakout to the upside. A notable doji appeared at 09:45 ET, signaling indecision in the market around 49.76, which coincided with a short-lived pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price between 09:00 and 10:00 ET, forming a bullish crossover that reinforced the upward move. The 50-period moving average was around 49.75, while the 20-period was closer to the price by 11:00 ET, indicating a tightening bullish bias.

On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA hovered near 49.40, while the 100-period MA sat at 49.25. The price closed above both indicators, indicating a long-term bullish bias, with the 200-period MA (49.15) providing a key long-term support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 08:00 ET, with the histogram showing a bullish divergence. The indicator remained in positive territory for the next 5 hours, confirming the strength of the bullish move. The RSI surged to 69.4 early in the morning before retreating to mid-50s, indicating a temporary overbought condition and the likelihood of a consolidation phase.

The RSI formed a bearish divergence at 15:30 ET, where the price made a higher high but the RSI declined, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This coincided with a pullback to 49.96, and traders may monitor the 49.70–49.80 zone for further validation of a potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the morning rally, with the price reaching as high as the upper band at 50.09. This expansion reflected increased volatility and strong bullish momentum. As the price pulled back, it closed near the middle band, suggesting a possible retest of the 49.80–49.85 zone.

A contraction in the bands was observed in the early morning (07:00–08:00 ET), indicating a period of consolidation before the breakout. Traders may watch for a potential retest of the upper band as a key level for continuation or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the morning rally, with the most notable increase occurring at 08:15 ET, where 123,770 JPY was traded as the price surged from 49.71 to 49.80. This volume confirmed the strength of the move and aligned with the upward price action.

A divergence appeared in the late afternoon, where the price continued to edge higher but volume and turnover declined, suggesting weaker conviction among buyers. This may point to a potential exhaustion phase ahead of a reversal or a pause in the upward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 08:15–13:15 ET rally, the 38.2% level at 49.86 and 61.8% level at 49.80 became key areas of focus. The price tested these levels multiple times, particularly between 14:00 and 15:30 ET, before consolidating near 49.96. The 50% retracement at 49.90 was a critical support level, and a break below this could signal a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed 15-minute bullish continuation and ascending wedge patterns, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline, confirmed by a closing candle above the 50-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed below the wedge’s lower boundary, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy aligns with the observed volume expansion and MACD confirmation during the morning rally and could be tested for consistency across multiple timeframes and similar chart setups.