Market Overview for TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT): 2025-10-01

• Price rallied from 0.3315 to 0.3404 amid strong buying pressure.
• TRXUSDT saw a 15-minute close at 0.3397 after a bullish break above 0.3361.
• Volume spiked in the late hours, with turnover surging near 0.3404.
• RSI shows overbought conditions as price tests upper Bollinger Band.
• A key support appears at 0.3327, which held during midday consolidation.

The TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) pair opened at 0.3329 on 2025-09-30 12:00 ET and advanced to a high of 0.3404 before closing at 0.3397 on 2025-10-01 12:00 ET. The price action showed strong momentum in the afternoon and early evening hours. Total 24-hour trading volume amounted to approximately 112,514,949.8 TRX, with a notional turnover of ~37.27 million USD (based on average price and volume).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a clear bullish bias after a key support level at 0.3327 held firm during a midday consolidation phase. From that level, price broke out and formed a series of higher highs and higher lows. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.3326–0.3331, a higher high pinbar at 0.3345, and a strong bullish reversal candle at 0.3361–0.3369. Price approached 0.3404 before consolidating, forming a potential topping pattern that may indicate short-term profit-taking.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA rose into alignment with the 50-period MA, signaling short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed above the 100-period MA, reinforcing a medium-term positive trend. The 200-period MA remains well below current levels, suggesting that the rally remains within a broader bullish context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the afternoon breakout, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels near 75, particularly in the early evening, suggesting that the price may face near-term resistance as buyers pull back or sellers step in. Divergences were not observed, but a strong bearish correction could signal a shift in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the afternoon breakout, pushing price near the upper Bollinger Band. The band width widened from ~0.0003 to ~0.0015, indicating heightened market activity and potential exhaustion in the current move. Price has remained within the band for the most part, suggesting that the breakout has not yet triggered a full volatility expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the afternoon hours, with the largest 15-minute volume of 21,927,840.0 TRX coinciding with the breakout at 0.3361–0.3369. Notional turnover also surged during this period, with the highest 15-minute turnover occurring at 0.3404. Volume and price action aligned well, confirming the strength of the bullish move. No major divergence was observed between volume and price during the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn from the key low at 0.3315 to the high at 0.3404. Price has now tested the 61.8% retracement level at ~0.3366, with the 78.6% level at ~0.3386 being the immediate target. The 15-minute chart showed minor pullbacks aligning with the 38.2% and 50% levels, indicating that the move remains within a structured rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the confirmed support at 0.3327 and the overbought RSI, a backtest could involve entering a long position at 0.3332, just above the key support, with a stop below 0.3327 and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ~0.3366. This strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish move while managing risk with a tight stop. The MACD crossover and bullish candlestick patterns at that level could act as confirmation signals, enhancing the probability of success.